184 
FXUS64 KMOB 101816
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
116 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Mostly VFR conditions were noted across the area this afternoon.
Brief reductions to ceilings and visibilities remain possible
around any lingering showers or storms along the coast this 
afternoon. Rain chances diminish by this evening with VFR 
conditions prevailing overnight. Light northerly winds today 
generally continue through the period. /14

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

A surface boundary continues to slowly push across the forecast 
area this morning and afternoon trailing from the remnants of 
Beryl. This feature will serve as the delineation between 
drier/warmer weather to the north and wetter/slightly cooler 
weather to the south. Expect generally isolated shower and storm 
coverage over interior portions of the forecast area today with 
highs in the lower 90's. Further south nearer the coast we will 
likely see another day of scattered to locally numerous showers 
and storms with highs topping out in the upper 80's. As the 
boundary becomes increasingly diffuse late this afternoon into the
evening, expect convective coverage to wane with only isolated to
scattered showers and storms by late afternoon into early 
evening.

We start to see a return to a more diurnally driven cycle with 
convection Thursday as early morning showers and storms develop near 
or just offshore the AL/FL panhandle coast and gradually works their 
way inland by the afternoon. Once again at best expecting scattered 
to locally numerous showers and storms near the coast around or just 
after daybreak becoming mostly scattered coverage by the afternoon 
hours for most of the forecast area. Highs Thursday will be a little 
warmer in the lower to middle 90's, warmest over the interior, after 
starting the day in the lower to middle 70's.

A high risk of rip currents continues today for Alabama and Florida 
Panhandle beaches as light to moderate onshore flow persists. The 
risk drops to a moderate tonight into Thursday as winds relax and 
become more parallel to the shoreline.

Additionally, similar to yesterday morning a waterspout or two can't 
be ruled out this morning across the bays/sounds and nearshore 
waters. Adequate surface vorticity and 3km CAPE values of 125 to 
175j/kg will foster the potential for waterspouts through efficient 
stretching of environmental surface vorticity underneath any shower 
or storm with a robust enough low level updraft. Non-supercell 
tornado parameters across the nearshore waters range from 3 to 6 
indicating an environment favorable for waterspout development with 
any more robust storm updrafts. This potential will likely last 
through early morning, quickly diminishing as environmental surface 
vorticity and 3km CAPE wanes into the mid to late morning hours. 
MM/25

SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 509 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

An upper trough just to the west of our area will be flattening 
out on Thursday night, with an upper level high pressure ridge 
then building over the area Friday through late Saturday or early
Sunday. Another upper trough approaches the area from the west
Sunday night into early Monday, moving east across the area
through Tuesday. By Wednesday this feature should be east of our
area, with high pressure aloft rebuilding from the west. At the 
surface, a weak frontal boundary along the Gulf coast region will 
remain nearly stationary while weakening. This feature could act 
as a low level focus for the generation of scattered showers and 
thunderstorms each day through the period, primarily in the 
afternoon and early evening hours and mostly over the southern 
half of the forecast area. Afternoon sea breeze boundaries will 
also likely act as a low level focus for scattered showers and 
storms each day as well. The upper ridging will keep coverage 
somewhat scattered (30 to 50 percent range) through most of the 
period, with the afternoon PoPs slightly lower over the northern 
half of the forecast area. We will continue to see a mainly 
diurnal pattern with showers and storms, more numerous over inland
areas during the daytime hours, and along the coast and offshore 
during the late night and early morning hours. Hot and humid 
conditions will continue as well. Daytime highs will generally be 
in the mid 90s through the period, with a few upper 90s possible 
inland, but upper 80s and lower 90s along the immediate. May be 
again looking at the possibility of Heat Advisory conditions by 
the weekend and even more likely into the early and mid part of 
next week. Low temperatures will range from the lower 70s inland 
to the upper 70s and even a few lower 80s closer to and along the 
coast. DS/12 



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  92  74  94  76  95  76  96 /  20  50  20  50  10  50  10  40 
Pensacola   76  92  77  92  78  93  78  93 /  30  50  20  50  10  50  10  50 
Destin      77  91  79  92  80  92  80  93 /  40  40  20  40  10  40  20  40 
Evergreen   71  94  71  96  72  97  74  96 /  10  30   0  30   0  30  10  40 
Waynesboro  71  95  72  97  73  97  74  98 /  10  20   0  30   0  30  10  30 
Camden      71  93  70  95  72  97  73  96 /   0  20   0  20   0  20  10  30 
Crestview   72  95  72  97  73  97  74  96 /  20  40  10  40  10  40  10  50 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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