769 
FXUS63 KLMK 101056
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
656 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Breezy conditions expected today, with sustained winds of 10-20 
    mph and gusts of 20-30 mph.

*   Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures expected for Friday 
    through the weekend. Worsening drought conditions are possible.

*   Triple-digit heat index values could return Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This morning, the center of the sfc low associated with the remnants 
of Beryl is located over central Indiana. Latest SPC mesoanalysis 
and WPC surface analysis has 1004 mb central pressure near 
Indianapolis, with a pressure trough representing the effective cold 
frontal boundary extending south along the I-65 corridor across 
southern IN and central KY as of 07Z. Light to moderate rain showers 
are exiting the KY Bluegrass region to the east at this hour, with 
additional sprinkles/light rain showers oriented along a narrow 
corridor immediately behind the cold front farther to the west. 
Isolated to scattered sprinkles/light rain showers will continue, 
mainly along and north of the Western KY/Bluegrass Parkways, through 
mid-morning, though precipitation totals should be very light.

Winds will be unusually strong for mid July today across the region 
as the sfc pressure gradient remains tight on the back side of the 
sfc low. Even at this hour, wind gusts of 20-25 mph are being 
observed according to latest mesonet/ASOS obs. Winds should peak 
during the mid-morning through the early afternoon hours today. 
Sustained westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph 
are expected, with isolated gusts to 35 mph possible. As the sfc low 
pulls farther away from the area this evening, winds will steadily 
ease, with light and variable winds returning tonight.

While deeper moisture will move east of the region this morning, a 
shallow saturated layer between 925-850 mb will produce a stratus 
deck which is expected to persist into the late morning and early 
afternoon hours. These low clouds will eventually lift and scatter 
out this afternoon, generally clearing from SW to NE. Clouds should 
help to suppress temperatures initially, though temps should warm 
once sunshine returns. As a result, high temperatures today will 
range from the upper 70s in the NE CWA to the mid 80s in the SW CWA.

Late this afternoon and into the evening hours, low-level 
convergence and lingering moisture may help to spark a few showers 
and thunderstorms across the Wabash Valley and points NW, with any 
showers/storms drifting toward our area during the evening hours. 
Would expect coverage to be very isolated given warming mid-level 
temps limiting lapse rates; however, its worth mentioning that one 
or two showers or storms can't be ruled out this evening.

Tonight, light winds and mostly clear skies are expected, helping 
temperatures to cool efficiently after sunset. Lows should fall into 
the 60s in most locations for Thursday morning, which should be the 
coolest temperatures we experience in the foreseeable future. Fog 
will also be possible tomorrow morning, especially in areas which 
have received rainfall over the past 24 hours. The extent and 
duration of fog is still uncertain, and will depend on how quickly 
we clear out today.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Lingering upper trofiness will persist Thursday as the post-tropical 
low continues to fill NE of Georgian Bay. A weak disturbance will 
dig into the mid-Mississippi Valley but lift out sharply enough that 
only far western Kentucky and perhaps the southwestern quadrant of 
Indiana will get a deep Gulf moisture tap. Slight chance POPs on 
Thursday afternoon will be limited mainly to the Hoosier National 
Forest and areas north and west.  Temps near normal for this time of 
year, perhaps touching 90 in south-central Kentucky. 

Pattern becomes more zonal Friday into the weekend, with heights 
building as the faster westerlies are pushed solidly to our north. 
Very slight chance for convection to brush our southern Indiana 
counties Friday afternoon, but otherwise it looks like a dry 
weekend. Temps will be on a gradual warming trend, with more areas 
punching into the 90s each day and a slight increase in humidity. 

Heat and humidity will be the headliners early next week, as the 
stronger upper ridging finally builds in from the Plains. Temps well 
into the 90s and dewpoints solidly above 70 will result in triple-
digit heat indices Monday and/or Tuesday for at least some portion 
of the area. However, confidence is limited as the more NW component 
of the flow aloft could guide MCS activity into at least the Upper 
Ohio Valley either day. Will highlight the potential for heat in the 
Hazardous Weather Outlook for now, but will not play it up too much 
yet.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 655 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

A stratus deck is over the region this morning, with area forecast 
sites observing MVFR ceilings at this hour. Brief visibility 
reductions have been noted over the past few hours as patches of 
heavy mist/light rain have moved across the region. Expect these to 
dissipate over the next hour or so and would expect ceilings to be 
the main driver of categories through the remainder of the period. 
The back edge of the stratus deck has been moving through faster 
than expected in model guidance; as a result, we'll speed up the 
return to VFR CIGs by an hour or so with this forecast.

Gusty winds have begun to veer from SSW to W and even WNW so far 
this morning; winds should remain gusty through the morning hours 
before easing this afternoon and evening. Tonight, winds should be 
light and variable. Light winds and any lingering low-level moisture 
could result in fog development Thursday morning. For now, 
confidence remains low enough to leave fog mention out of the 
forecast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CSG