National Weather Service Raw Text Product

685 
FXUS64 KMOB 082102
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed across the 
area this afternoon, but should begin to taper off early this 
evening with the loss of daytime heating. It's also been very hot 
and humid this afternoon with temperatures currently sitting in 
the lower and middle 90s. Heat index values have risen into the 
105-110 degree range. A Heat Advisory will therefore remain in 
effect until 6pm this evening for the entire area. Low 
temperatures tonight will range from the middle and upper 70s 
inland to around 80 degrees near the coast. 

Upper level ridging over southern GA and northern FL will weaken 
through Tuesday as Tropical Storm Beryl lifts northeastward across
eastern Texas and Arkansas while simultaneously merging with a 
northern steam trough over the central US. This system will remain
off to our northwest, but it will send a plume of deep tropical 
moisture down into our area overnight and into Tuesday. Showers 
and storms will likely begin to develop along southern portions of
the area early Tuesday morning before spreading across the 
remainder of the area through the day. Given the weakening upper 
ridge and increasing moisture, coverage will become more 
widespread especially as we head into the afternoon hours. Storms 
on Tuesday will be capable of producing heavy rainfall (perhaps a 
quick 2-3+ inches) and could lead to some localized flooding 
concerns especially in areas where storms repeatedly move over the
same areas and are slow moving. Brief gusty winds and frequent 
lightning will also be possible with the stronger activity. 
Temperatures will top out in the lower 90s Tuesday afternoon as 
cloud cover and rain chances increase. It will still feel quite 
humid though with heat index values reaching to around 105-107 
degrees. A moderate rip current risk continues tonight before 
increasing back to a high risk on Tuesday. /14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The remnants of Beryl will continue to lift northeastward across 
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. A weak surface front moving into our forecast area will
stall near the I-65 corridor Wednesday afternoon before becoming 
more of a surface trough axis across our region by Thursday. A 
plume of enhanced deep layer moisture across our area with PWAT 
values between 2.0 and 2.4 inches will shift southeastward to 
become oriented across central and southern portions of our 
forecast as drier air filters in from the northwest, so we expect
a chance of showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) over most of the
CWA on Wednesday, with lower POPs (20%) across our northwestern 
zones. An upper trough associated with the remnants of Beryl is
expected to persist over the eastern half of the US through
Thursday, followed by weak upper ridging building over the Deep
South late in the week. As a result, convective coverage should
remain isolated to scattered in nature on Thursday and Friday, 
and mainly oriented along the surface trough axis/seabreeze near 
the coast. Precipitable water values may trend upward by the 
weekend despite the building ridge axis, so scattered convection 
looks to be a good bet with good heating and instability over the 
weekend into Monday. Hot and humid conditions will be the rule 
each day through the extended forecast with high temperatures 
ranging in the lower to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday and 
potentially trending a bit higher in the mid to upper 90s away 
from the immediate coast Friday through the weekend. Heat index 
values look to stay below advisory criteria for the most part 
during the middle to latter part of the week. The latest forecast 
does have maximum heat index readings ranging between 102-107 
degrees and locally over 108 degrees over a few spots over the 
weekend into Monday. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Southeasterly flow prevails today before becoming a moderate
southwesterly to westerly flow Tuesday through mid-week. Small 
craft will likely need to exercise caution Tuesday night. Light 
westerly to southwesterly flow returns for the later part of the 
week. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  90  75  91  74  93  74  94 /  30  80  50  40  20  30  10  40 
Pensacola   80  91  79  90  77  91  77  93 /  30  80  60  60  30  40  20  40 
Destin      81  91  80  89  78  91  79  92 /  30  70  50  70  40  40  20  40 
Evergreen   75  93  74  91  70  92  69  95 /  20  80  20  40  10  20  10  20 
Waynesboro  75  93  71  92  70  94  71  96 /  20  80  10  20  10  10   0  20 
Camden      75  92  72  90  69  92  69  94 /  20  80  20  30  10  10   0  20 
Crestview   76  93  75  91  72  94  72  96 /  20  80  40  60  20  40  10  40 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday 
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday 
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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