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668 FXUS64 KLIX 060825 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 325 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A gentle split flow is occurring over the area this morning from the interaction between the upper outflow from Beryl and an upper trough to the north. This along with very high PW values will help storms get going quite easily around sunrise again today and possibly again on Sunday. There is not a lot of storm motion today or Sunday so these storms will develop and decay mostly over the same area they get started over. Water temps are close to convective temps so there could be some morning sh/ts that develop today before sunrise but most activity will be after sunrise today and Sunday. These will be very efficient heavy rainfall producers and since they will not be moving much(more propagation than movement), they will have the potential to drop several inches in a short time which could cause ponding and flooding in some locations. The numerous sh/ts that will be around will also help keep temps somewhat lower with the cloud cover. This is why we will not be issuing a heat advisory for today. But there will be a few locations that could get heat index readings up to around 108F during the hottest part of the day, especially if there is no cloud cover for those locations. The environmental conditions are also very conducive for waterspout/landspout activity as well. Although these are not normally strong, they can still cause issues if caught in them. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Beryl is still moving toward the Texas coast and is fcast to move inland Monday. The system will then begin to unravel meaning deep moisture profiles will remain across the area for the next several days. Models differ with picking this system up in the westerlies and kicking it to the NE. But regarless of which is right about it, it leaves our area with the same fcast and that is hot, moist and rainy. As the system moves north, it will leave a wake trough somwhere over Louisiana by mid week. This could be as far as western Miss, but we will need to see if that will occur. But either which way, it spells the same for the area through much of this upcoming week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Most of the area will have VFR outside TSRA today. There could be some cigs found around MVFR and even touching IFR levels this morning from BTR to MCB, but that should lift into VFR as well by mid morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Somewhat higher swell from the south will continue to move through today. These look to be around 3ft and will be additive to the wind waves across the gulf and since the winds will be quite weak, this should be the highest seas out there. This change a bit as Beryl gets slightly closer to the most western portion of our waters bringing winds up to around 15-20kt and seas to around 4 to 5ft late Sunday into Monday. These conditions will stay west of the Miss River and begin to settle by Tuesday bringing the area back to a normal southerly wind flow around 10kt for the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 73 91 74 / 80 40 60 10 BTR 92 78 95 78 / 80 40 60 10 ASD 92 77 94 77 / 80 50 60 10 MSY 90 80 94 80 / 80 40 50 10 GPT 90 78 92 79 / 70 50 60 20 PQL 93 76 95 77 / 70 40 50 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE