813 
WTNT43 KNHC 010258
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032024
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024
 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now near 35 kt so the 
system is being named at this time. 
 
The tropical cyclone continues on a slightly north of due west
heading with an initial motion estimate of 280/11 kt.  A strong mid-
level ridge associated with a high pressure system centered over
the southern U.S. Plains should continue to steer the system mainly
westward through tomorrow, i.e. until dissipation.  The official
track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and about
in the middle of the objective guidance.

Since the cyclone should make landfall within the next few hours, 
little additional strengthening is anticipated.  Chris should 
weaken quickly after moving inland and dissipate over the 
mountainous terrain of Mexico.
 
The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be
heavy rainfall, which will result in life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight and into 
Monday.
 
Key messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern
Mexico into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected overnight in the 
tropical storm warnings area in Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 20.0N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 20.3N  97.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch