359 
FXUS64 KMOB 281804
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
104 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Scattered showers have once again developed across the area and
will likely continue through the afternoon. Temporary reductions
in visibilities and ceilings will be possible with the heaviest of
storms. Winds will be light out of the south-southwest through the
forecast. Scattered showers will likely develop along the coast
overnight tonight and drift inland in the typical diurnal cycle.
BB/03 

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

An active convective pattern continues through the near term 
period as an upper-level trough lingers overhead. Throughout the 
day today, this trough will break away from the jet stream 
(located well to our north) and will evolve into an elongated, yet
weak upper low/inverted trough axis which will remain overhead 
through Saturday. By the tail end of the period, this feature will
dissipate as an upper ridge over the south central US expands 
eastward, placing the local region under the eastern periphery of 
this ridge. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary located across
portions of southern Mississippi/Alabama is expected to dissipate
throughout the day today, allowing for the typical summertime 
land/sea breeze circulation to develop and become the dominant 
surface feature through the period. With PWATs exceeding 2 inches 
across the entire area, scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are forecast to develop both days. Convection will 
start by developing over coastal counties and marine zones during 
the morning hours. By the afternoon, this activity will spread 
inland as the sea breeze pushes northward and interacts with 
outflow boundaries. Activity will gradually wane during the 
evening hours thanks to the loss of daytime heating. As is the 
case with typical summertime convection, although severe storms 
are generally not expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and 
heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger storms 
that manage to develop. Additionally, the combination of very 
strong low-level CAPE values and surface vorticity can be 
conducive for the development of waterspouts over our marine 
zones, or possibly a very brief landspout over coastal counties. 

Highs for both today and tomorrow will top out in the low 90s. We 
should stay just below Heat Advisory criteria, although heat indices 
will likely climb into the 102 to 107 degree range for both days 
thanks to dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tonight will 
remain very mild, with temperatures only dropping into the mid 70s 
inland and the upper 70s to around 80 degrees closer to the coast. A 
Moderate Risk of rip currents will remain in place through tonight 
due to an elevated southwesterly flow over the Gulf, leading to 
increased surf heights. With winds decreasing for Saturday, the rip 
current risk drops to a Low risk. /96  

SHORT AND LONG TERM... 
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Upper high pressure will be ridging into our area from the west 
into the early part of next week. The upper high pressure will 
drift east by late in the period, being centered MS/AL. With the 
center of the upper ridge situated to our west over the ArkLaTex 
region through the weekend, a rather deep northerly flow pattern 
will persists over our region with some weak shortwave energy 
likely rounding the eastern periphery of the upper high. This 
upper energy, combined with a dissipating weak surface frontal 
boundary over the interior southeast CONUS, along with daytime 
heating and instability, will allow for scattered to locally 
numerous showers and storms each day, mainly in the afternoon and
evening hours. During the early to middle part of next week, 
surface high pressure will be ridging in from the east, 
maintaining the moist low level airmass across the region. This 
will help maintain a chance for scattered showers and storms each 
day into the early to middle part of next week, but with the upper
ridge building coverages will be a little less than in the first 
part of the period. Daytime highs through Sunday will primarily be
in the low to mid 90s, with afternoon heat indices in the 100-105
degree range. Monday and especially into Tuesday and Wednesday, 
daytime highs increase into the middle 90s for most locations, 
with heat indices likely above 108 degrees in many areas. With 
this, we will potentially be looking at another round of Heat 
Advisories for at least portions of our area by Monday and then 
into Wednesday of next week. Nighttime lows will continue to be 
mainly in the low to mid 70s through the period for most 
locations, but upper 70s along the immediate coast. /13



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  91  76  94  75  94  75  92 /  50  70  20  70  40  50  30  60 
Pensacola   79  91  79  93  78  92  79  90 /  50  60  30  70  50  70  40  70 
Destin      80  89  80  91  79  91  80  90 /  40  60  30  70  50  70  40  60 
Evergreen   74  92  74  93  73  95  73  93 /  30  70  20  70  30  50  20  60 
Waynesboro  74  93  73  94  73  95  72  96 /  40  60  20  70  20  40  10  50 
Camden      74  92  73  92  73  94  72  93 /  30  70  20  70  20  40  10  50 
Crestview   75  93  74  94  74  96  74  93 /  50  60  20  70  40  70  30  70 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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