National Weather Service Raw Text Product

258 
FXUS64 KJAN 230251
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
951 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

All is generally on track for the near term forecast and no
significant changes were made in this evening's update. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Quiet conditions will continue heading into tonight as global 
guidance continues to highlight strong mid/upper ridging across our 
forecast area. Aside from few high clouds, skies will be generally 
clear heading into the overnight period. The clear conditions will 
allow for radiational cooling to occur allowing for nighttime 
temperatures to drop into the mid 70s areawide. Hot weather 
conditions will continue heading into tomorrow as the sfc high 
starts to slowly shift east out of our CWA. Although the area will 
remain on the eastern periphery of strong mid/upper ridging, low 
level flow will become more southerly, with increasing low level 
moisture beginning Sunday afternoon. Around this timeframe dewpoints 
will reach in the 70s with temperatures in the upper 90s to near 
100. This will yield heat indices approaching 105 F - 110 F degree 
range especially for areas west of I-55. Elsewhere, areas east of I-
55 will see heat indices approaching 105 F degrees. No changes have 
been made to the dangerous heat graphic for Sunday. /CR/

Sunday night through Friday night: Heat and humidity will be the 
main concerns through the period with Tuesday expected to be the 
most oppressive day.

Come Sunday evening our CWA will be on the eastern periphery of a 
large 592dam high while a weak cold front approaches our northern 
zones. This cold front is still expected to stall across our CWA as 
surface ridging across the northern Gulf tries to remain stout. The 
deep moisture including PWATs around two inches that pooled along 
and ahead of the front will spread southwest across our CWA during 
the day. Combined with the presence of the stalled frontal boundary 
and daytime heating, rain chance will return and be greatest over 
our eastern zones. Despite the rain chances, temperatures will climb 
into the mid to upper 90s and combine with the high humidity to 
result in peak heat index values between 105F and 110F over most of 
the western half of the CWA Monday and then the whole CWA Tuesday. A 
Heat Advisory will likely be needed for at least the west Monday and 
likely the whole CWA Tuesday.  

By Wednesday morning the large mid level high will have become 
centered over the Four Corners region. A shortwave trough topping 
the ridge will spill into our region during the day and lead to a 
greater coverage of and perhaps an earlier start to convection. This 
is expected to help hold temperatures a few degrees cooler than on 
Tuesday and result in lower peak heat index values. The shortwave 
trough is expected to be dropping south along the 
Mississippi/Alabama stateline Thursday helping to maintain rain 
chances over the southeast half of the CWA until tapering off from 
the northwest Thursday evening. Friday the mid level high is progged 
to build east back across our region. This will lead to warmer 
temperatures and raise the concern of heat stress again. /22/ 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions and light mostly southwest to westerly surface wind
will prevail through Saturday. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  95  76  96 /   0  10   0  30 
Meridian      71  98  75  97 /   0  10  10  30 
Vicksburg     73  96  77  97 /   0   0   0  20 
Hattiesburg   73  97  76  97 /   0  10   0  30 
Natchez       73  95  75  95 /   0   0   0  20 
Greenville    75  98  79  99 /   0  10  10  10 
Greenwood     73  97  77  97 /   0  20  10  20 

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019-025-
     034.

LA...None.
AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CR/22/EC