124 
FXUS64 KMOB 192041
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
341 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday as our forecast 
area remains located in between newly formed Tropical Storm Alberto 
located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a large upper level 
ridge of high pressure that stretches from the Mid-Atlantic states/ 
Eastern Seaboard to the Tennessee Valley region. A few rain showers 
have developed over portions of southwest AL and southeast MS within 
a narrow plume of enhanced moisture that is advecting westward 
across our area. 

No significant changes have been made to the forecast through 
Thursday afternoon. The upper level ridge of high pressure will 
expand westward across the Tennessee Valley, including central and 
northern portions of MS/AL tonight into Thursday. Isolated to 
scattered showers over inland portions of the area should diminish 
by early evening. Isolated to scattered convection should then 
become focused mainly offshore or near the immediate coast/beaches 
late tonight into early Thursday morning. Similar conditions are 
anticipated for Thursday afternoon with a few showers (possibly a 
thunderstorm or two) developing again as another plume of increased 
moisture spreads from east to west across our region on the southern 
fringe of the upper level ridge axis. We will maintain low POPs, 
mainly across locations east of I-65 and near the coast. Generally 
kept temperatures trended in line with the NBM. Lows tonight are 
forecast to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s over inland 
locations and in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the immediate 
coast and beaches. Highs on Thursday should range in the upper 80s 
to lower 90s. 

Coastal hazards: There have been a few reports of wave runup/minor 
coastal flooding along the west end of Dauphin Island (Bienville 
Blvd) and near I-10 ramps in northern Mobile Bay around times of 
high tide today courtesy of the persistent easterly flow. Similar 
conditions are possible on Thursday, so we have opted to issue a 
Coastal Flood Advisory around times of high tide Thursday for Mobile 
Bay, mainly for the I-10 ramps/Causeway areas and along the west end 
of Dauphin Island and possibly Shell Belt/Coden Belt Rd areas in far 
southern Mobile County. Dangerous surf with large breaking waves up 
to 5-7 feet will continue to impact area beaches through early 
Thursday evening. A HIGH rip current risk also continues through 
Friday night. /21  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

An upper level ridge over the southeastern quarter of the Conus 
shifts west as an upper level shortwave system off the Southeast 
Coast stalls and meanders around through the Short Term. A second 
shortwave trough moves east over the northern half of the Conus. It 
moves over the Northeast early in the coming week, where in 
combination with the shortwave system off the East Coast, begins to 
form a deep upper level trough over the East Coast. As the upper 
system moves near the Southeast Coast, a weak surface low organizes 
off the Florida Atlantic coast, then meanders northwest over the 
Southeast Friday night into the weekend, bringing an uptick in 
moisture levels over the Southeast (precipitable h20 values rise to 
around 2" in guidance) Friday/Friday night. With contention between 
subsidence from upper level high pressure and increased instability 
from the uptick in moisture levels, an increase in PoPs over land 
areas Saturday afternoon through Saturday night will be limited to 
areas southeast of I-65, with the biggest drop in subsidence and 
increase in instability located in this area. Over the open Gulf, 
moisture levels remain high enough over the warm Gulf waters to 
override upper subsidence, with scattered to numerous rainshowers 
and thunderstorms expected through the Short Term.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures at well above 
seasonal levels, with an uptick from Friday into Saturday. High 
temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected Friday, with mid to 
upper 90s over areas well inland from the coast. The increase in 
moisture levels Saturday will bring Heat Indices topping out in the 
100 to 105 degree range over most land areas of the forecast area. 
Low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday night rise 
into the low to upper 70s Saturday night.
/16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The mean upper trough continues to organize and deepen as the 
northeastern trough and southeast Conus trough join. The upper 
trough also shifts west over mainly the southeastern Conus as the 
mean upper trough begins to take a positive tilt over the Southeast. 
Moisture levels increase into the 2.1"-2.3", and with decreasing 
upper subsidence as the upper ridge shifts west, scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected by Wednesday and 
Thursday. Temperatures will see a downward trend through the 
Extended, approaching more seasonal norms. With the increase in 
moisture levels, combined with near seasonal high temperatures. Heat 
Indices in the 101 to 106 degree range (locally higher) are expected 
in the coming week.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

No significant changes to the ongoing marine forecast. A moderate to 
strong east-southeasterly flow will persist through Thursday in 
response to the pressure gradient between newly formed Tropical 
Storm Alberto in the southwestern Gulf and a large area of high 
pressure over the southeast. Hazardous conditions for Small craft 
will persist through Thursday as seas range around 7 to 10 feet 
offshore with waves of 2 to 3 feet in nearshore bays and waterways. 
Winds and seas are expected to slowly diminish by the weekend as 
the gradient weakens. 03/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  90  73  93  72  93  74  94 /  10  20  20  20  10  30  10  20 
Pensacola   75  90  75  93  76  91  77  92 /  10  30  20  30  20  40  10  30 
Destin      76  90  76  92  78  91  79  91 /  20  40  30  30  30  40  20  20 
Evergreen   69  90  68  93  70  94  72  95 /   0  20  10  20  10  40  10  30 
Waynesboro  69  91  70  94  69  96  72  97 /   0  10   0  10   0  20   0  20 
Camden      69  89  68  92  69  94  72  96 /   0  10   0  10  10  20   0  20 
Crestview   69  92  69  94  71  95  72  96 /  10  40  10  30  20  50  10  40 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM CDT Thursday for 
     ALZ263>265.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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