538 
FXUS64 KMOB 180502
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1159 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

General VFR conditions are expected to continue across the area
through Tuesday evening. Overall not expecting any rain overnight,
although an isolated shower could be possible, especially near 
the coast. Some patchy light fog in some areas will also be 
possible overnight as well, but neither rain nor fog widespread or
impactful enough to include in TAF's. Isolated showers or storms
on Tuesday, mainly coastal areas and Mobile Bay region. Surface 
winds are expected to be mainly out of the east through the 
period, light tonight into early Tuesday but increasing somewhat 
(to 15 to 20 knots at times) during the afternoon on Tuesday. 
DS/12 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ 

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

General VFR conditions are expected to continue across the area
through Tuesday. Continued lingering rain and showers over 
interior portions of southwest AL and southeast MS early this
evening will continue to move away and/or diminish through mid
evening. Overall not expecting any rain overnight, although an 
isolated shower could be possible. Some patchy light fog in some 
areas will also be possible overnight as well, but not widespread 
or impactful enough to include in TAF's. Only an isolated shower
or storm possible on Tuesday as well, so nothing indicated in 
TAF's then either. Surface winds are expected to be mainly out of
the east through the period, light tonight into early Tuesday but
increasing somewhat (to 15 to 20 knots at times) during the
afternoon on Tuesday. DS/12 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ 

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure remains positioned over 
the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon. A plume of deep moisture 
continues to slowly advect across portions of the western FL 
panhandle, southwest AL, and southeast MS along the western side of 
the ridge axis. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms 
continue to develop across this portion of our region within the 
moist and unstable environment this afternoon. A few cells have 
occasionally pulsed strong and have produced strong wind gusts of 40-
50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. 

The plume of deep moisture will continue to pivot westward as the 
upper level ridge along the east coast continues to strengthen and 
expand. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger 
into the evening, with the best chance over southeast MS and far 
southwest AL. Convection should diminish overnight, although a few 
showers/storms could develop offshore late and approach the 
immediate coast toward daybreak. Will maintain low POPs Tuesday 
morning, mainly across southern portions of southeast MS and far 
southwest AL, before POPs decrease/shift westward with time Tuesday 
afternoon. Most areas will be more under the influence of the 
strengthening ridge axis by Tuesday afternoon. Lows tonight will 
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s over inland locations and in 
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the immediate coast and 
beaches. Highs on Tuesday generally range in the upper 80s to lower 
90s.

A HIGH risk of deadly rip currents will continue through Tuesday. 
Surf will quickly build to 4-6 feet along area beaches tonight and 
up to 5-7 feet on Tuesday. A High Surf Advisory goes into effect 
starting tonight and will continue over the next few days. /21 

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday) 
Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Upper ridging is in no rush to go anywhere as it remains generally
parked across the southeastern U.S. through Friday. Ridging
finally begins to break down as we head into the weekend with 
upper troughing digging in across the Great Lakes into Midwest 
states by Sunday. A typical diurnal cycle for this time of year is
expected with afternoon isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms each day, mainly in association with the sea- breeze
boundary pushing inland. Best chances will remain confined across
coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle any given
day. Daily highs will stay warm in the lower to middle 90's, 
perhaps locally pushing upper 90's by late week into the weekend.
Overnight lows remain toasty with generally lower to middle 70's 
expected. 

A High Risk of rip currents will remain in effect through the 
weekend. A High Surf Advisory also goes into effect starting late
Monday night and lasts through Thursday afternoon. Surf heights 
will remain around 5 to 7 feet during this period.

In terms of tropics, there's a couple areas of interest to watch
over the next week. The first is in association with newly
designated PTC1 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system
will remain well to our southwest and the only impacts from it
will continue to be increased surf heights through Thursday and 
rip currents through late week into the weekend. Late week into 
the weekend models continue to be divergent on their solutions for
the southwest Atlantic system. The good news is it appears the 
system is further east than anticipated initially, which means the
odds of it staying well east of the forecast area are increasing.
Have maintained 30 to 50 percent PoPs for the forecast area the 
weekend into early next week, but could see this being a bit 
generous if these trends continue. MM/25

MARINE...
Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

NHC is initiating advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 in the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico as the broad area of low pressure over 
the Bay of Campeche remain favorable for development into a tropical 
cyclone by midweek. The pressure gradient between this system and a 
broad ridge of high pressure extending across the western Atlantic 
and Eastern Seaboard will bring moderate to strong easterly to 
southeasterly flow and building seas to our marine area through 
early Thursday morning.

We added southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound to the Small 
Craft Advisory starting 4 AM Tuesday and continuing through 7 PM 
Wednesday for easterly winds of 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
possible. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for our Gulf 
marine zones from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Thursday for these same wind 
speeds along with seas building to 6-9 feet. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  88  75  91  75  92  72  94 /  20  20  10  30  10  20  10  20 
Pensacola   76  89  77  91  76  91  76  91 /  20  20  30  30  20  40  20  30 
Destin      76  90  77  90  76  90  77  89 /  20  10  20  20  20  30  20  30 
Evergreen   70  90  72  90  69  91  70  93 /  20   0   0   0   0  10   0  20 
Waynesboro  71  89  72  91  71  92  70  95 /  40  10   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Camden      71  89  72  90  70  92  70  94 /  20   0   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Crestview   70  92  72  92  71  93  71  94 /  20  10   0  10   0  20  10  30 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for 
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for 
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for 
     GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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