498 
FXUS61 KCLE 151330
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
930 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist through the weekend. A strong ridge
will remain over the region through next week, resulting in above
normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The forecast is on track so no major adjustments. I adjusted the
winds slightly with the updated short term model runs that
mainly impact the lakeshore areas.

Previous discussion...
Quiet and dry weather is expected through
Sunday as surface high pressure remains in place across the 
region. Onshore flow today will keep temperatures a bit cooler, 
though still near average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 
80s. Slightly cooler temperatures in the low to mid-70s are 
possible across NW PA.

A strong upper level ridge will begin to build across the
eastern CONUS on Sunday. This will pump high temperatures into
the upper 80s to lower 90s, though dew points in the 50s will
make it feel more like a "dry" heat. This upper level ridge will
continue to strengthen and remain in place for much of the 
following week. More details on that below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A challenge to the forecast that is dominated by the significant 
heat increase is the potential for daytime convection to materialize 
with weak waves in the upper level south to north flow for the CWA. 
Operational models are continuing to try to push QPF out for the 
solutions, but looking at the vertical profile forecasts shows there 
probably is not enough layer humidity to get vertical cumulus 
development much beyond of the top of the boundary layer. Will go 
with the low POPs Monday and Tuesday however, but most locations 
remain hot and dry. No changes to the dewpoint forecast which has 
values upper 60s to lower 70s both Monday and Tuesday. Not going 
with any triple digits in this latest iterations of the beginning of 
the week forecast, but still have widespread lower to upper 90s, and 
70s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridge dominating the eastern third of the CONUS will shift 
from the Carolinas/Virginia northward into New York by the end of 
the long term forecast period. This will not amount to much, 
however, in terms of a sensible weather change for our area, and 
still looking at lower to upper 90s in the forecast for the CWA. 
Temperature recovery at night will not be all that helpful with 70s 
for the most part. Some low end POPs creep back in Friday afternoon, 
but the theme remains hot and primarily dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with VFR to persist 
through the TAF period. No precipitation is anticipated through 
the TAF period. 

Winds are generally out of the north this morning, around 5 
knots. Winds will generally favor a northerly direction through 
much of today, gradually shifting towards the northeast, then
east later this evening and overnight.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Wednesday. An isolated
thunderstorm or two is possible in the afternoon on Monday and 
Tuesday, though confidence is low.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds with an easterly fetch keep wave heights around 1-2ft 
today, with winds becoming southeasterly tonight. Sunday sees 
the winds turn back to easterly 8-13kts for a few hours in the 
afternoon, but back to southeasterly 8-13kts Sunday night. Wave 
heights 2ft or less.

Bermuda high pressure translates to offshore flow for Lake Erie, 
less than 10kts, for the bulk of the remainder of the forecast. Wave 
heights generally a foot or less from Monday through Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected next week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs on several 
days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday, June 21 are 
listed below for our official climate sites. 


Date   Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie        
06-17  97(1994)    94(1936)   94(2018)    94(2018)   95(1994)    90(2018)       
06-18  98(1994)    93(1994)   96(1944)    96(1944)   95(1994)    92(2018)       
06-19  98(1995)    94(1994)   92(1995)    94(1994)   94(1994)    92(1931)       
06-20  98(1953)    94(1988)   96(1988)    95(1933)   95(1933)    92(2016)       
06-21  100(2022)   96(1988)   95(2022)    97(1933)   98(1933)    95(1933)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Garnet
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...26
CLIMATE...