925 
FXUS64 KMOB 132351
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
651 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Winds primarily light and variable
tonight, then southeast to southerly around 5 to 10 knots during the
day on Friday. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Upper ridging continues to build into the forecast area through
Friday. Likewise, the heat will continue to increase into Friday 
with temperatures warming amply into the upper 90's to near 100 in
spots. Heat index values should remain in the 100 to 105 range, 
however a couple spots nearer the coast could get near 107 Friday 
afternoon. Overnight lows cool into the upper 60's inland and 
lower to middle 70's nearer the coast. Overall weather conditions 
should remain calm through Friday, with only an isolated storm or 
two possible east of the I-65 corridor this afternoon. Dry weather
will prevail for the day Friday in all locations. A low risk of 
rip currents continues into Friday. MM/25

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

It's going to be a hot weekend as upper high pressure over the
southern/central Great Plains shifts eastward over our region and
a large surface high pressure area across eastern North America 
shifts eastward with a ridge setting up along the eastern Seaboard
to the Gulf of Mexico. It will be especially hot on Saturday with
highs in the mid to upper 90s with some locations potentially 
reaching the century mark. These temps are about 5 to 10 degrees 
and above normal, and when combined with surface dewpoints in the 
upper 60 to lower 70s, the highest heat index values should range 
from 100-105 degrees. Dry conditions are expected Saturday most 
areas, with only a few afternoon showers and storms possible over 
a small portion of the western Florida Panhandle and south central
Alabama. A Low risk of rip currents is expected through the 
remainder of the week.

An inverted upper trough sets up over the western Gulf early next
week with a 40 percent chance of cyclone formation across the 
southwest Gulf of Mexico. Tropical depression formation is
possible during the early to middle part of next week while it 
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Upper disturbances 
moving over our region should bring an increase in cloud coverage 
and rain chances on Sunday, with isolated mainly afternoon showers
and storms northern zones with scattered coverage closer to the 
coast. High temperatures Sunday will be slightly cooler in the low
to middle 90s, but when combined with surface dewpoints in the 
lower to middle 70s, the highest heat index values should again 
range from 100-105 degrees.

With the influence of the inverted upper trough over the western 
Gulf, the center of the upper high pressure area over our region
is deflected northeastward away from the forecast area and a 
surface ridge oriented mainly over the southeastern states 
promotes a moist southeasterly flow over the forecast area. In 
general, increasing amounts of deep layer moisture gradually work 
into the forecast area through Tuesday. Maintained the higher 
rain chances (30-60%) for Monday, with the best chances occurring 
along a developing sea breeze. Tuesday through Thursday we are 
primarily expecting a return to isolated afternoon showers and 
storms northern zones with scattered coverage closer to the coast.
A Moderate risk of rip currents returns early next week. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through 
Friday, with an offshore flow at night into the morning hours and 
a mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening hours. A 
light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by Saturday 
and strengthens on Sunday as low pressure develops in the 
southwestern Gulf. Seas are also expected to increase as we head 
into early next week. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  96  74  97  75  93  75  89 /   0  10   0  10  10  40  30  60 
Pensacola   75  95  77  95  78  92  77  89 /   0  10   0  10  10  40  30  60 
Destin      77  93  79  93  80  91  78  90 /  10  10   0  20  10  40  30  50 
Evergreen   71  98  71  98  72  96  72  93 /   0  10   0  10   0  30  20  50 
Waynesboro  68  97  70  99  73  97  72  90 /   0   0   0  10   0  20  10  50 
Camden      69  97  71  98  73  98  72  92 /   0   0   0  10   0  20  10  40 
Crestview   71  99  71  99  72  95  72  94 /   0  10   0  20   0  40  20  50 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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