726 
FXUS63 KLMK 121511
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1111 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Above normal temperatures expected from Sunday and into 
    next week. Rain chances may pick up early next week as 
    southerly flow draws moisture northward from the Gulf.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Quiet weather continues across the region this morning, with latest 
visible satellite imagery showing little more than thin high clouds 
across southern KY. Ample sunshine has allowed temperatures to warm 
steadily from the upper 40s and 50s this morning into the low-to-mid 
70s at this hour. High pressure continues to linger across the Ohio 
Valley, with winds remaining light and variable. The forecast 
remains on track at this time, with temperatures expected to warm 
into the low-to-mid 80s under mostly sunny skies this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

We will remain mostly sunny with just some high clouds over the 
region to start the day associated with a weak system over east TX 
and a weak upper trough passing through the Great Lakes during the 
early morning hours. Sfc high pressure will remain present over the 
Ohio Valley with the center continuing to build eastward.This will 
help to bring a weak return southerly flow as mid-level heights and 
thickness beginning to increase over the region. Highs will be a few 
degrees warmer than yesterday with more locations getting into the 
low/mid 80s. Dew points will also be a bit warmer but still fairly 
comfortable in the mid 50s. This will also translate into mild 
overnight under clear skies and lows in the mid/upper 50s and low 
60s in urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Thursday through Saturday Night...

At the start of the period, we'll see a trough axis moving through 
the Great Lakes with another trough axis off the SE coast.  The 
trough axis coming through the Great Lakes will bring a cold front 
toward the region on late Thursday and into Friday.  The front will 
weaken as it crosses the region on Friday, but enough convergence 
along the front should produce at least isolated-scattered 
convection across the region.  Overall highest chances of precip on 
Friday looks to be across our eastern/northeastern sections.  A few 
of those storms could be strong with gusty winds/lightning and 
marginal hail being a threat.  Heights will then rapidly build as 
we get into Saturday with temperatures expected to moderate rather 
quickly. 

Highs on Thursday will likely top out in the mid-upper 80s with 
perhaps the urban heat islands hitting 90.  Overnight lows Thursday 
night will be in the upper 60s.  Highs Friday will be similar to 
Thursday with most spots in the upper 80s to near 90.  Overnight 
lows Friday night will drop into the lower 60s across southern IN 
and the northern half of Kentucky.  Southern KY may stay mild with 
readings in the upper 60s. Highs Saturday will be slightly cooler 
with mainly upper 80s in most locations, a few spots in southern KY 
may get close to 90.

Sunday through Tuesday...

By Sunday, upper ridge axis will be over the region with mostly 
sunny skies and increasingly hot conditions.  Temperature guidance 
here has a bit more spread on Sunday with the GFS going with upper 
80s and lower 90s while the Euro has temps in the mid-upper 90s. I'm 
not overly confident in that temperatures will soar as high as the 
Euro suggests.  Last summer, the Euro exhibited a warm bias in the 
extended. In addition, we're quite green across the area given the 
rainfall from mid-late May, but we will be drying out a bit this 
week.  For now, will cap temps in the lower 90s for highs. Overnight 
lows Sunday night will be quite mild with lower 70s expected.

Going into Monday/Tuesday of next week, southerly flow will 
transport decent moisture into the Ohio Valley from the Gulf, so 
dewpoints will increase and we'll be quite humid.  Model solutions 
show quite the spread when it comes to potential rainfall.  The Euro 
is quite dry and keeps temperatures in the mid-upper 90s.  On the 
other hand, the GFS/GEFS and Canadian models are a bit more bullish 
on diurnally driven convection breaking out within the 
southerly/southwest flow pattern.  This results in cooler temp 
forecasts from those two models.  Will use a blend of the models 
here and keep temps mainly in the lower 90s for Mon/Tue along with a 
20-30% PoP in the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 816 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Quiet weather forecast thanks to prolonged sfc high over most of the 
eastern US. Just a few clouds but it will remain VFR with light and 
variable winds through most of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for 
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BTN