801 
FXUS63 KLMK 110711
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Below normal temps and humidity today followed by a warming 
    trend with hot and dry conditions for the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Skies early this morning were clear across the region.  Temperatures 
were mainly in the lower to middle 50s, though a few of the valley 
locations and typical radiational cooling spots were already into 
the upper 40s.  For the remainder of the overnight period, no 
significant weather is expected.  Some very patchy river valley fog 
will be possible, but widespread fog is not expected due to the 
relatively dry boundary layer air.  

For today, another below average temperature day is expected.  High 
pressure will move across the region and provide mostly sunny skies 
to the area.  Mid-level heights will rise slightly through the day 
and temperatures should be a little higher than what we saw on 
Monday.  Afternoon highs in the 75-80 degree look good here. 
Generally leaned closer to the CONSShort guidance for this package.

For tonight, high pressure will remain in control of our weather 
with a continued northwest flow aloft.  Mostly clear skies are 
expected with lows dipping back into the low-mid 50s.  A few of the 
valley locations will likely drop back into the upper 40s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The majority of the weather through the long term will be relatively 
quiet with just a few chances of showers/storms by Friday and again 
early next week. The other noticeable change will be increasing 
temperatures and highs climbing into the upper 80s/ low 90s for the 
end of the week into the start of the weekend. Then temperatures get 
warmer for Sunday into early next week with afternoon temperatures 
into the low/mid 90s. 

Temperatures will start to rise through the end of the week as 
surface high builds to our east-southeast as mid-level heights 
begins to increase over the Ohio Valley as ridging builds from the 
Desert Southwest northeast into the central plains. Weak embedded 
shortwave trough in the mid-level flow will work along the northeast 
periphery of the ridge towards the Ohio Valley Thursday night into 
Friday. This will also help to push a surface cold front in from the 
northwest and across the Ohio Valley sometime during the day on 
Friday. Moisture will increased out ahead of the front with PWAT 
values climbing to around 1.40" to 1.50"  providing amble 
instability. While the front will be the main lifting mechanism, 
shear values look to remain very low and some of the model soundings 
show some capping taking place towards the afternoon. While the 
deterministic models are starting to hint at a slightly larger 
chance of showers/storms on Friday. For now will keep PoPs in the 10-
20% range due to some uncertainty on timing and lack of consistency 
from run to run.

Ridging will shift eastward across the the plains and into the deep 
south through the weekend into early next week. This will really 
allow afternoon temperatures to warm to the hottest levels of the 
summer so far. With return moisture flow by early next week. Could 
see the development of isolated to scattered diurnally driven 
convection for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period.  Light 
northerly winds are expected overnight.  VFR conditions are expected 
through the daytime hours with a light northeast wind.  The outlook 
for tonight and Wednesday calls for VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....BTN
AVIATION.....MJ