977 
FXUS63 KIND 051025
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
625 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms today into early 
  this evening. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out.

- Cool with below normal temperatures Thursday through Tuesday

- Numerous shower/storm chances Saturday through Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today across central Indiana 
as a cold front sweeps through the area in the late morning to early 
evening time frame - a bit slower than previously expected.

Ample moisture is in place ahead of the boundary, with precipitable 
water values as high as 1.6-1.9 inches, close to climatological max. 
Modest destabilization is expected despite increasing cloud cover, 
and weak though potentially sufficient deep layer shear values will 
exist for at least a low threat of an isolated strong to severe 
storm, primarily in the eastern half to third of the area where 
frontal passage will be occurring near peak heating. Primary threats 
today will be damaging winds, heavy rain/localized flooding, and 
perhaps some marginally severe hail given the distribution of the 
forecast CAPE profiles.

Showers and storms will come to an end early this evening as the 
front exits the area, and dry weather is expected for the rest of 
tonight. Some midlevel moisture will accompany the primary upper 
level wave as it slides through the Great Lakes tonight, but dry low 
level air will likely prevent anything from reaching the ground, 
instead manifesting as some midlevel cloud overnight - this should 
help prevent any significant fog formation tonight, though some 
patchy fog will be possible due to the rainfall today.

Diurnal range will be limited somewhat today and tonight by the 
precipitation and cloud cover, and expect highs to max out around 80 
today, and drop to around 60 tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

An active weather pattern appears in store for the end of the work 
week through early next week. Models are in good agreement regarding 
the general trend of the overall upper pattern, but differ with some 
of the timing and forcing details.

Thursday and Friday...

Starting on Thursday, strong ridging is expected to develop over the 
western CONUS leading to a deep, negatively tilted  trough over 
Ontario and the Great Lakes. This is expected to be the prevailing 
pattern through early next week.  Cooler northwest flow within the 
lower levels will be expected as the deep trough aloft allows 
Canadian air to arrive across the Ohio Valley and Central Indiana. 
Moisture will remain a problem for this system on Thursday and 
Friday. The gulf will be effectively cut off, and continental air 
will be in place. Forecast soundings on Thursday through Friday show 
mainly a dry column as a mid level inversion aloft caps any CU 
development. Furthermore, best forcing and moisture looks to remain 
wrapped in the main cyclonic flow aloft over the Great Lakes. Thus 
will try to trend toward a dry forecast on Thursday and Friday amid 
cooler highs. However some low chance pops may be needed across the 
northeast parts of the forecast area due to proximity to the better 
forcing/moisture.

Saturday and Sunday...

Better chance for showers will be in place through the weekend. 
Overall the upper pattern will remain the same, with northwest flow 
in place aloft and a deep upper low over western Quebec. However 
models suggest a few short waves within the flow aloft to push 
across Indiana. Forecast soundings also point toward saturation as 
these features pass, although confidence is often low in timing 
these waves at this time range.  Models also suggest a weak surface 
trough/cold front to pass also as it pivots around the low to the 
northeast. Thus for now, at least some low chance pops will be 
warranted through the weekend. A washout weekend appears unlikely 
and many dry hours appear to be expected, but a few passing showers 
or storms cannot be ruled out.

Monday and Tuesday...

Models differ a bit here with an unresolved upper pattern. On 
Monday, One model suggests the arrival and passage of a upper low 
while another suggests ridging aloft amid continued northwest flow. 
This is then followed by the upper low departure with ridging 
arriving on Tuesday, while the second model allow the arrival of a 
short wave on Tuesday afternoon. Thus lots of uncertainty here, 
mainly due to the uncertain evolution of the previous upper trough. 
For now, low rain chances each day appear quite reasonable until a 
higher level of confidence can be achieved.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 625 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Impacts:

- Widespread MVFR ceilings developing mid morning.

- Showers and thunderstorms, particularly in a 3-6 hour period 
  starting around 14-17Z depending upon the site.

- Wind gusts approaching 20KT around this time ahead of frontal 
  passage from 210-240 degrees.

Discussion: 

Passage of a frontal system later today will cause an increase in 
coverage of showers and thunderstorms, particularly from around mid 
morning into mid afternoon, along with gusty pre-frontal winds and 
deteriorating ceilings and possibly visibilities, particularly in 
precipitation.

Widespread MVFR conditions are expected, with occasional drops to 
IFR possible, mainly in precipitation. A small patch of IFR 
conditions may continue to impact IND during the first few hours of 
the period.

Winds will become gusty ahead of the front, gusting as high as 20KT 
from 210-240 degrees. These gusts will subside in the evening as the 
front departs.

Have concentrated thunder mentions at each site to the most likely 
time frame for scattered storms.

VFR conditions will return this evening, though depending upon 
rainfall amounts, sky cover, and winds behind the front, some fog 
cannot entirely be ruled out late tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Nield