046 
FXUS64 KMOB 010134
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
834 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...

Issued at 833 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 

Upper level storm system over the MO/KS border this evening has 
its axis extending southward to across LA. This has set up a 
favorable diffluent pattern in the high level geo-potential 
height field over MS and AL. In the low levels, high pressure to 
the east is allowing for a well established southerly flow to 
allow deep Gulf moisture to open up and spread northward. At the 
surface, a quasi-stationary front was draped from central TX up 
into the Mid South and southeast into AL. To the south of the 
boundary, convective outflows that have moved in from earlier
storms over LA, along with contributions from aloft are providing
a focus for ascent and thus forecasters are seeing scattered 
showers and storms this evening lifting northwest over the 
interior. Southward to the coast, activity has been more isolated.
Radar has not shown much depth to the storms over the interior as
they track north and away from the better instability which 
resides along the coast. Rain rates though are a few inches 
per/hour in better defined radar returns but with storm motion 
from 15 to 25 mph, residence time over any one area is too limited
for water concerns. Probability of precipitation this evening 
remains unchanged at 30-50% interior to 20% coast. Rain chances to
increase after midnight as better upper support moves in from the
west. There is a small, marginal risk of severe storms over MS in
zone of modest CAPE but lower shear. A general storm outlook is 
east into AL/northwest FL. /10 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ 

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A mix of cloud bases to start the period, most at VFR categories
which anticipate to hold through much of the evening. Some
isolated pockets of convection over the interior was lifting
northwest at 15 knots. There are indications during the predawn 
hours Saturday of shra/tsra spreading in from the west. Cigs/vsby
lower to MVFR categories with approach of tsra. /10 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ 

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Upper-level ridging, currently near the AL/GA border, will 
continue pushing toward the east through the period. This ridge 
will strengthen and become more amplified late tonight and into 
tomorrow as it approaches and moves into the western Atlantic. 
Looking upstream, a weak shortwave impulse over Mississippi is 
pushing northeastward, moving along the western periphery of the 
ridge. The bulk of the showers and storms associated with this 
feature will likely remain to our west, although as subsidence 
from the ridge moves away from the region, cannot rule out the 
development of isolated to scattered showers and storms, 
especially over portions of southeast Mississippi and interior 
southwest Alabama (PoPs around 20-30 percent) given the weak 
forcing, modest instability, and increasing moisture. The 
remainder of the area should remain mostly dry for the rest of the
day, although an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out 
(PoPs elsewhere around 10-20 percent). Highs today will reach the 
upper 80s to low 90s.

For tonight and into tomorrow, the pattern becomes much more complex 
as a shortwave trough moves into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, 
and eventually into the Tennessee River Valley. Several more robust 
shortwave impulses begin to ride along the base of the trough, 
helping to provide plenty of large-scale forcing across the area. 
Additionally, at the surface, outflow boundaries from the previous 
storms over Mississippi/Louisiana look to slowly push into our area. 
The first of the main impulses will approach the area tonight, 
helping to initiate scattered to numerous storm development, 
especially over the western half of the area where the outflow 
boundaries will be located. By the morning and into the early 
afternoon, convective coverage looks to become more widespread 
across the entire local area as the impulses continue to move 
overhead. Instability tonight is expected to increase rather 
quickly, with a few CAMs suggesting CAPE values generally around 
1500 to 2500 J/kg prior to storm initiation. Deep layer shear out 
ahead of the storms looks rather meager, however, shear values 
should begin to increase (to around 25-35 knots) during the morning 
hours from the west. This increase in shear may allow for storms to 
organize into multicellular clusters (one or two supercells cannot 
be ruled out) and eventually into an MCS as the shear punches into 
the developing storms. Therefore, cannot rule out storms capable of 
producing severe winds in excess of 60 mph. Due to this risk, a 
marginal risk of severe storms is in place across the entire local 
area. At this point, due to the developing LLJ remaining well to our 
north (and therefore weak low level shear in place), no tornadoes 
are expected. Additionally, storms will also be capable of producing 
high rainfall rates which could lead to some localized or nuisance 
type flooding especially given the high PWATs and slower storm 
motions. Coverage may begin to lower by the middle to latter part of 
the afternoon, but this depends on how worked over our environment 
becomes after our late night/morning rounds of storms. 

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s a 
long the coast. Highs tomorrow should only reach the low to mid 80s 
due to the widespread rainfall and cloud cover. A moderate risk of 
rip currents tonight will increase to a high risk tomorrow. /96

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

An upper trof which extends from near the Great Lakes to the north 
central Gulf coast gradually weakens while continuing into the 
western Atlantic during the period. A series of shortwaves progress 
across the forecast region through the period, though the shortwaves 
will be stronger during the Saturday night into Sunday time frame. A 
surface ridge over the southeastern states weakens through Monday 
night but nevertheless maintains a moist southerly flow over the 
forecast area, with precipitable water values typically ranging from 
1.75-2.0 inches. Have gone with chance pops Saturday night and 
chance to likely pops for Sunday as the series of stronger 
shortwaves move across the area, then slight chance to chance pops 
follow for Monday as the series of shortwaves weaken. May see a few 
strong storms develop early Saturday evening. Lows Saturday night 
range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast then 
trend a bit warmer through Monday night to range from the upper 60s 
inland to the lower/mid 70s near the coast. Highs on Sunday will be 
in the lower to mid 80s and highs on Monday will be in the upper 80s 
to around 90. A high risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday 
night through Sunday night, then a moderate risk follows for Monday 
and Monday night. /29

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

An upper trof over the northern and central Plains steadily 
amplifies while spreading into the eastern states, and an associated 
surface low passes well to the north and brings a weak cold front 
through the forecast area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. 
Plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place over the forecast 
area through Thursday with some modestly drier air flowing into the 
region Thursday night but looks to recover on Friday. Forcing looks 
to be limited over the area Tuesday and Wednesday so have gone with 
dry to slight chance pops, then slight chance to chance pops follow 
for Thursday as the front moves into the area. Have gone with slight 
chance pops for Friday due in part to some uncertainty with the 
timing of the frontal passage. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A moderate southeasterly flow is expected through much of the 
weekend. Winds will occasionally become strong late tonight and 
into Saturday morning and exercise caution headlines will likely 
become necessary for this period. By late Sunday into the early 
part of next week a lighter onshore flow returns to the marine 
area. Waves and seas increase over the weekend as well before 
subsiding early next week. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  83  70  84  71  88  72  89 /  60  90  50  60  20  20  20  20 
Pensacola   74  82  73  84  73  86  74  87 /  60  90  50  50  20  20  10  10 
Destin      74  82  74  84  75  86  75  87 /  40  80  40  40  10  20  10  10 
Evergreen   69  81  66  84  67  90  68  91 /  40  90  50  60  20  20  20  20 
Waynesboro  69  83  67  84  68  88  69  92 /  60  90  40  70  20  30  20  20 
Camden      68  81  67  83  67  88  69  91 /  40  90  50  60  20  30  20  20 
Crestview   69  83  67  86  67  90  67  91 /  30  80  40  60  10  20  10  20 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Saturday through late Sunday 
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Saturday through late Sunday 
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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