628 
FXUS63 KIND 291328
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
928 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance for showers today, primarily over the eastern half 
  of central IN

- Below normal temperatures today and tonight; Highs in the upper 60s 
  to low 70s with overnight temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s

- Dry and Seasonable Wednesday through Friday, Rain chances Saturday 
  into Sunday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...

Northwest flow near the surface and aloft continues as the upper 
level low that brought the storms to portions of central Indiana 
yesterday continues to slowly track to the east.  Weak lift within 
the jet stream associated with this low continues to bring periods 
of sprinkles and light rain, mainly to the eastern counties with 
widespread cloud coverage.

Little change was made to the forecast other than to expand the 
sprinkle coverage a bit further west based on latest radar trends. 
As long as the cloud cover doesn't break earlier than currently 
expected, most areas will struggle to reach 70 today which lines up 
well with the ongoing forecast.

Expect that by later this evening any rain will be focused only 
across the northeastern counties where the moisture is a bit more 
robust.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across all of 
central IN with widespread clouds over portions of eastern WI, 
southern MI, and northern IN. There clouds are associated with a mid-
level shortwave which is expected to progress towards the area 
leading to enhanced cloud cover. Look for clouds to increase in 
coverage between towards daybreak and persist through at least the 
early afternoon hours. Weak forcing from the disturbance and 
marginal low-level moisture will support the potential for showers, 
mainly across the eastern half of central IN from mid-morning to 
early afternoon. 

The shortwave is expected to move east by this afternoon with
surface high pressure building in which should allow for clouds 
to gradually begin clearing. With clouds clearing out some, this 
could be enough to promote a few diurnal showers through the 
afternoon from daytime heating. Most locations are going to remain
dry during the afternoon, but will keep very low rain chances 
over far east counties. Look for quiet weather conditions tonight
as surface high pressure continues to build in. Light winds and 
clear skies may allow for patchy fog development.

Enhanced cloud cover early in the day combined with broad upper 
troughing and N/NW flow will keep temperatures below normal in the 
upper 60s to low 70s. Light winds and clear skies may allow for 
patchy fog development late overnight. Good radiational cooling 
conditions will result in chilly lows around the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Ridging will start building in late Thursday and will bring 
temperatures up closer to climo (mid-upper 70s) by Friday and 
Saturday. Narrow moisture return ahead of the next shortwave trough 
will bring a chance of showers Saturday. The degree of forcing, 
moisture magnitude, and instability indicate generally light 
amounts. Multi-model ensemble mean rainfall amounts are around or 
just above a quarter inch, with only a couple of outliers near an 
inch. 

The background larger scale synoptic pattern will feature steadily 
rising heights and slight positive anomalies by the weekend and 
early next week, so temperatures will rise to slightly above climo 
during this period. Uncertainties emerge as ensemble spread grows 
with handling smaller scale features. One shortwave trough is 
reasonably well timed among the ensemble suite bringing increased 
rain chances early next week. It's difficult at this time range to 
narrow down specific periods of greater chances. Most of the flow 
aloft will remain at higher latitudes, so shear is limited and 
organized severe storm threat appears low at this time. 

Days 8-14: Multi-model medium range ensemble mean shows a relatively 
strong signal for the time range of eastern troughing and western 
ridging. This should keep us below normal on both temperatures and 
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings expected to persist through midday, mainly near 
  IND/LAF.
 
- Low chance for showers near IND today

Discussion: 

MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through midday, mainly near 
IND/LAF due to a mid-level disturbance moving across central IN. 
Clouds are expected to lift and clear out in the afternoon as the 
impulse departs. BMG may see a few brief hours of MVFR conditions.
Isolated showers are possible near IND today. Confidence in exact 
timing and location of these showers is low so a VCSH group was not 
included in the TAF.

N/NW winds generally around 10 kts or less are expected through this 
evening. Sporadic gusts up to 20 kts are possible, but should remain 
infrequent enough to not warrant a TAF mention. Winds then become 
northeasterly tonight and diminish to around 5 kts or less.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...Melo