407 
FXUS63 KIND 281411
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1011 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and at least a few storms are possible late in 
  the day and early tonight. Highs will be in the 70s.

- Low precipitation chances linger into Wednesday across eastern 
  portions of central IN 

- Dry and Seasonable Thursday and Friday, Rain chances late Saturday 
  into Sunday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Only minor change to the forecast was to bump wind gusts up a bit as 
diurnal mixing has been quite efficient this morning. Gusts at KIND 
have already been upwards of 20kt. Expect breezy conditions to 
continue as we progress into the afternoon, with readings as high as 
25kt possible in a few places. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Broad upper troughing will remain over the region today with a few 
embedded shortwaves traversing the region. Expect mostly quiet 
conditions through mid-afternoon as the first few upper level 
impulses should remain north of the area. Rain chances then begin to 
increase late this afternoon into the evening when another embedded 
shortwave and attendant surface wave move in. The best chance for 
rain will be north of I-70 where stronger forcing should be in place 
with lower chances further south. Weak cold air advection and 
increasing clouds late will help keep temperatures in the 70s again. 
 
Subtle moisture return and daytime heating will likely 
provide sufficient instability for at least a few storms. In 
addition, steep low-level lapse rates suggest gusty winds are 
possible in any heavier showers or storms. Precipitation should 
continue into the early overnight hours before the system begins to 
move east late. Low POPs linger through the overnight over far E/NE 
counties as broad cyclonic flow from the surface low could keep 
isolated showers around. A cold front associated with the surface 
wave is expected to move through tonight leading to slightly cooler 
lows in the low-mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

As a deep troughing progress slowly eastward into New England the 
next few days, two embedded shortwaves will influence Indiana's 
weather. One will pass through Wednesday and the other on Thursday. 
Neither will have a substantial impact on temperatures but the MSLP 
pattern will support northerly wind direction and temperatures that 
are 5-7 degrees below normal with low humidity. 

An accompanying lobe of increased moisture through a deep layer 
should be enough when combined with diurnal heating for a few 
convective showers and a low probability of a few lightning strikes. 
Coverage should be limited and this should impact mainly the 
northeast third of central Indiana. 

Mid-upper ridging will start building to our west Thursday and 
should nudge our temperatures up to near normal for late May by 
Friday as the ridge axis crosses Indiana. A weak shortwave is shown 
in most models crossing Saturday with a narrow ribbon of modified 
moisture and weak instability, sufficient for low-mid range 
probabilities of precipitation. Ensembles are all clustered around 
light precipitation amounts, generally a quarter inch or less with 
just a few outliers up to around an inch. 

Chaos in the ensemble suite grows Sunday into early next week. Most 
models show the larger scale pattern trending toward broad low-
amplitude ridging and positive height anomalies, bringing a warmer 
pattern. The next somewhat organized precipitation event appears to 
be late Monday, but smaller scale details are unclear. GEFS-weighted 
clusters favor more troughing than EPS-weighted clusters and more 
than just one frontal convective scenario. Will refine details later 
this week. 

Days 8-14: Multi-model ensemble mean shows a ridge west / trough 
east pattern developing during this period. Some hold the ridge 
further west and linger troughing longer, and some are more 
progressive. Given the sensitivity of temperature to these pattern 
differences we cannot say above or below normal with any degree of 
confidence. This pattern would slightly favor drier than normal 
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 535 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Impacts:

- Predominately VFR conditions expected through the period

- Scattered showers and storms possible after 22Z today, mainly near 
  LAF/IND

Discussion: 

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period. 
Scattered showers and storms will be possible after 22Z today when 
an upper wave moves into the area, mainly near LAF/IND where PROB30 
was added to the latest TAF. Gusty winds and brief MVFR or worse 
conditions will be possible in any heavy showers or storms. Isolated 
showers and storms could develop near BMG/HUF, but confidence is too 
at this time for a PROB30 mention. 

Winds will be relatively light and out of the west through daybreak. 
By mid-late morning mixing allows for winds to increase and become 
northwesterly. Sporadic gusts up to 20 kts are possible this 
afternoon. These gusts are not expected to remain consistent enough 
to warrant a TAF mention.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...Melo