National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIND Product Timestamp: 2024-05-27 13:23 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KIND Products for 27 May 2024 View All AFD Products for 27 May 2024 View As Image Download As Text
882 FXUS63 KIND 271323 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 923 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds today and slightly cooler - Isolated showers possible this evening - Shower chances and cooler temperatures Tuesday-Wednesday, A few thunderstorms possible Tuesday with gusty winds - Dry and Seasonable Thursday and Friday, Rain chances late Saturday into Sunday && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 922 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 - An Isolated shower possible this afternoon; Otherwise partly sunny; Cooler Surface analysis late this morning shows low pressure over MI and Lake Huron. This system was providing cyclonic lower level flow to central Indiana. A weak trough pivoting around the low was found across Indiana, and a second weak trough was found over Wisconsin. GOES16 imagery shows a stratocu deck in the wake of the trough pushing through northwest Central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor shows an upper trough over Michigan extending south across eastern Indiana. Another upper low was found over the Dakotas. Subsidence was shown over Indiana and Illinois. This afternoon the cyclonic flow is expected to remain across Central Indiana. Forecast soundings fail to show much in the way of CU development. HRRR depicts a few diurnal showers possible by mid to late afternoon within the cyclonic flow mainly across northern and eastern parts of our forecast area. Coverage of this appears rather limited and quite light. Also with ongoing cold air advection and the advancing stratocu deck, heating may be limited somewhat. Thus will trend to partly sunny skies and only 20 pops for some very light showers possible mainly north and east from mid afternoon to early evening. Afternoon highs should be mainly in the low to mid 70s. Ongoing forecast handles that well. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Departing shortwave trough and attendant front will bring a slightly cooler and drier air mass today. MSLP gradient will support breezy northwest winds, and mixing into stronger winds aloft will create gusts up to around 30 mph during the afternoon. Residual low-level moisture will result scattered to broken sky coverage from stratus. A midlevel low is evident in water vapor over the Dakotas and will approach tomorrow. So, after a period of subsidence behind the departing trough, as is evident in forecast soundings, this may be rectified enough with midlevel cooling/ascent from the upstream trough for some isolated diurnal convection. This is most likely to our northwest over Illinois, but toward the end of the diurnal convective cycle (early evening) could move into Indiana in a weakening state. By then, with mixing subsiding and convective intensity decreasing, locally enhanced strong gusts are less likely than over Illinois, but can't be completely ruled out. Diurnal convection should diminish after sunset, as well as wind gusts. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Tuesday through Wednesday... Broad upper troughing will remain across the eastern CONUS early in the extended with multiple shortwaves moving across the region. This will keep low rain chances in the forecast at times. Moisture return should remain limited ahead of these disturbances as a cold front settles across the southeast so look for QPF amounts to be light. The first shortwave should be exiting to start the day Tuesday. The best forcing should be east of the area with no precipitation expected. A better chance for precipitation is likely towards the late afternoon and continuing into the early overnight hours as another shortwave approaches. The best chance for rain will be north of the I-74 corridor where stronger forcing should be in place. Subtle moisture return and daytime heating will likely provide sufficient instability for a few storms. In addition, steep low-level lapse rates suggest gusty winds are going to be possible in convection. Severe weather is not expected due to a lack of sufficient deep- layer shear or instability. A cold front associated with this system will move through overnight into Wednesday providing a brief cooldown mid-late week. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that surface high pressure begins to build in Wednesday providing quiet weather conditions for much of central IN. However, low rain chances remain over east portions of the area as the aforementioned shortwave will still be centered over Ohio. Thursday onward... Upper ridging and surface high pressure will likely provide quiet weather conditions for Thursday through early Saturday. Surface high pressure then begins to slide east late Saturday with the weather pattern possibly becoming more unsettled as an upper trough moves into the region. Other than the brief cooldown midweek, temperatures are expected to generally remain near seasonal through the extended. Lows are expected to fall into the 40s both Thursday and Friday morning for much of central IN. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 554 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Impacts: - Period of MVFR or IFR stratus through the morning - Wind gusts this afternoon to 25 knots Discussion: Can't rule out a brief shower at TAF sites late this afternoon or early evening, but the probability of impacting a TAF site is very low. Otherwise, mixing and momentum transfer will result in noticeably breezier conditions. MVFR/IFR stratus should decrease during the afternoon. Forecast confidence is medium to high. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Puma SHORT TERM...BRB LONG TERM...Melo AVIATION...BRB