414 
FXUS63 KOAX 232058
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
358 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
  move through this evening into early Friday (80-90% chance).
  Damaging winds and localized flooding will be the primary
  threats, but large hail and tornadoes will be possible.

- A flood watch has been issued for tonight into Friday morning
  in areas that have recently received heavy rainfall. Even
  relatively small amounts of rain in those areas could cause
  issues.
 
- Minor flooding continues along portions of the Missouri
  River. With increasing chances for heavy rain tonight, area
  rivers and streams could rise to flooding levels again in the
  coming days.

- Additional storm chances through Memorial Day weekend,
  especially Saturday evening and Sunday. Severe weather could 
  be possible at times, but confidence in exact timing and 
  location is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Fairly quiet early this afternoon, though a bit breezy, with 
southeast winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Temperatures as of 3 
PM were in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Otherwise, the main story was a shortwave trough/cutoff low over WY 
that will push east into the Dakotas this evening while a cold front 
slides through the area, interacts with an unstable air mass, and 
leads to a line of strong to severe storms. There could also be a 
few showers and storms in southeast NE/southwest IA this evening (7-
10 PM) as moisture transport begins to ramp up and point into the 
area, but the main line of storms doesn't look to move into our 
coverage area until 11 PM or later. While current SPC mesoscale 
analysis suggests very little instability in our area, that will 
change quickly as the aforementioned moisture transport/low level 
jet ramp up, with guidance indicating MUCAPE values in the 2000 to 
3000 J/kg range across the area and similar ML/SBCAPE values not 
lagging much farther south. Vertical shear profiles suggest storms 
should stay organized, though the strongest deep layer shear looks 
to lag behind the front and 0-3 km shear vectors aren't exactly 
perpendicular to the line and are just under 30 kts, suggesting the 
line could have a tendency to gust out and weaken in some locations. 
On the other hand, 0-1 km shear is quite strong with impressive low 
level hodograph curvature suggesting an enhanced tornado potential 
along bowing segments that are oriented more perpendicular with the 
0-3 km shear vectors and can become surface-based. So think the 
biggest threat with this line will be damaging winds and localized 
flooding (more on that soon), but can't rule out some short-lived 
tornadoes and large hail.

Regarding the rain/flood potential, the aforementioned low level 
moisture transport looks quite impressive and with precipitable 
water values in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range and warm cloud depths 
near 3500 m, expect some efficient rain-producing storms. In 
addition, latest CAM guidance suggests the southern end of the line 
of storms is trending toward being oriented more west to east, 
indicating some potential for training thunderstorms. Unfortunately, 
this could take place in locations where we recently received 3 to 
7+ inches of rain where it wouldn't take much to lead to further 
flooding problems. Therefore, elected to issue a flood watch for 
those areas that are most vulnerable to heavy rain, though much more 
(maybe even all) of the area is expected to see at least some rain 
overnight into early Friday.

Storms should exit to the east by 7-8 AM and give way to a fairly 
sunny, but breezy day with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and 
northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph. For the holiday weekend, we 
should stay dry for a good chunk of Saturday, but shower and storm 
chances return by the late afternoon/evening as a surface low tracks 
east across KS and a warm front sneaks north into the forecast area. 
There will be a threat for severe weather of all types in the 
vicinity and south of the warm front, but questions still remain on 
just how far north it makes it. As it stands, highest chances look 
to remain south of Interstate 80, but definitely worth monitoring 
the forecast, especially if you have outdoor plans.

Showers and a few storms could linger into Sunday, though there 
could be some dry periods during the day as well. Guidance then 
suggests we see some quick moving shortwave energy slide southeast 
through the area sometime Sunday night/Monday bringing yet another 
shot of some showers and storms. There remains quite a bit of spread 
heading into the early/middle of next week, but there could be a 
brief drier period sometime Monday-Wednesday as upper level ridging 
approaches. However, overall long term consensus is that we could 
stay fairly active with at least shower chances and highs mostly in 
the 70s...very spring-like.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions expected through most of this evening before a
line of strong to severe storms moves through overnight. Still
some questions on exact timing and strength at a given point,
but highest chances for 40-50+ kt winds and perhaps some hail look
to be at OFK and OMA. Some signs storms could stay just north 
of LNK, but overall chances still favor them getting hit. Expect
IFR/MVFR conditions as storms move through with southerly winds
becoming westerly to northwesterly. VFR conditions are expected
after.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning 
     for NEZ033-034-042>045-050>053.
IA...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning 
     for IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA