743 
FXUS63 KIWX 201821
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
221 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong to locally severe thunderstorm is possible between 6
  and 10 pm in NW Indiana/SW Lower MI as well as locally heavy 
  rain.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday
  night, mainly west of IN-15 and then again along and east of
  I-69 Wednesday afternoon and evening. 

- Warm and muggy conditions to be replaced by somewhat cooler
  and less humid air late this week into the Memorial Day
  weekend with some chances for showers and storms. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Very summer-like pattern comes with summer like challenges for 
convection over the next couple of days in a rather moist and 
diurnally unstable environment. Highs the next several days will 
soar well into the 80s

Initial focus, with greatest (albeit still somewhat reserved) 
confidence being with impacts of a MCV set to move across SE 
Wisconsin later this afternoon. While the best dynamics remain 
northwest of the area, a spoke of the wave does clip far NW areas, 
resulting in some weak convergence that may be sufficient to 
develop scattered showers and storms in the 22-00Z time frame. 
NAM suite overly unimpressed with the development with other 
CAMs a bit more confident on some development (HRRR the 
greatest). Much like yesterday, shear profiles are rather paltry
(20 kts or less) resulting in more pulse type convection that 
could drop a good deal of rain in a short time along with some 
threat for locally gusty winds/small hail. Confidence in 
eastward extent in the 00Z-04Z period decreases with loss of 
diurnal heating and continued NE track of the MCV removing the 
already limited convergence. Concerned that likely pops this 
evening may be overdone, but if it is going to occur, location 
is about right. Have made some adjustments to pops to reflect a
bit more inland extent to the storms but continue with a
weakening trend into the overnight hours. 

Between 9Z Tue and quite possibly through 4-6Z Wed the best 
forcing will likely remain well north into MI with the warm 
front and well west with the cold front, resulting in a dry 
forecast despite increasing instability and shear during the 
afternoon and evening hours. 700 mb temps of +11 to +12 C edge 
in as well, further capping off any development. While a stray 
shower or storm could form across northern parts of the area 
during the morning and maybe late afternoon in the far W, by far
the best chances look to wait to closer to 6Z Wed and beyond as
a line of strong to severe storms will likely have moved across
IL and be edging into western areas. A few CAMs show some 
possible additional development ahead of the line on more of a 
pre-frontal trough late evening with the main line then catching
up. Several models show a fair amount of SFC based CIN taking 
shape overnight and the 50 kts of 0-6 km shear actually 
decreases just ahead of the approaching convection (still 
maintained along and behind). If the line holds together into 
the overnight hours, pockets of damaging winds and some large 
hail would be the main concerns. Slight risk in NW areas appears
reasonable still for Tuesday night with greatest chances 
remaining well west of the area across E IA/W IL where a
moderate risk for severe storms now exists.

Cold front will ease its way through Wednesday with the potential 
for some lingering cloud cover early. CAMs vary greatly on potential 
for development along and ahead of the front with stronger signals 
maybe residing just SE of our area during the afternoon/eve hours as 
better upper level dynamics take time to catch up with the front. 
DY3 slight risk is warranted at this point, but may change over the 
next 24 to 36 hours as the mesoscale impacts of Tuesday night's 
convection becomes more apparent. New blend of models expands the 
likely pops well NW to match where the better chance for storms
may exist (SE third or so-roughly I-69 east) and lingers into 
Wednesday evening. This could very well be overdone, but given 
the proximity of the front can't entirely dismiss. 

Frontal boundary will settle south of the area, with models 
continuing to indicate a weak disturbance edging north from TX 
Thursday evening towards the Ohio Valley for Friday. Additional 
waves move in from the northern Plains the rest of the weekend into 
early next week resulting in several period of slgt chc to chc pops 
over the holiday weekend. Don't think by any means it will be a 
washout, but something to monitor in the coming days. The cloud 
cover will help keep it somewhat cooler during the day (70s). 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Mid level ridging and capping with 700 mb temperatures above normal 
across the area is expected to keep pop shower and thunderstorm 
activity at bay until around 00z or so. As a vorticity maximum heads 
into the Western Great Lakes and Lower Michigan area, left over 
instability may be able to maintain some level of strong 
thunderstorm activity into SBN terminals, but less of a chance to 
reach FWA. Can't rule out at least an MVFR VISBY restriction, but 
confidence is low on that. Additional flight restrictions will be 
possible Tuesday morning as Lake MI marine air filters in, but 
confidence on the extent of that is also low. Will address with a 
tempo group for now. Also, expect gusty winds this afternoon to die 
down this evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Roller