872 
FXUS62 KJAX 180101
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
901 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1AM...
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A Tornado Watch will be in effect until 1 AM for areas north of 
the I-10 corridor west of the JAX metro area and as the Suwannee 
Valley Region in NE FL, and spanning northward into SE GA towards
Waycross, GA. Aside from tornadoes, wind gusts of up to 70 mph 
will be possible as well as large hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Another round of thunderstorms will impact the area this evening, 
primarily north of I-10. Convective models had a hard time pin-
pointing the timing, but as of now it looks like storms will be 
entering the interior SE GA counties around 7-8pm, with things 
fizzling out just after midnight. With the sun peaking out of the 
clouds, enough instability will allow for strong to severe 
thunderstorms this evening, with the primary hazards being 
damaging winds and hail, but an isolated tornado and heavy 
rainfall cannot be ruled out. 

Heavy cloud cover and southerly flow overnight will keep mild 
lows in the lower 70s. Patchy fog will be possible over north 
central Florida early Saturday morning given calm winds and 
increased moisture. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A frontal boundary will be just to our north Saturday morning 
while a trough of low pressure aloft moving over the region. CAM 
models suggest a organized cluster of storms will moving west to 
east from AL, FL panhandle, and south GA, but differ substantially
on the timing. The HRRR brings in convection fairly early during 
the day but in general the HREF suggests more of a midday arrival.
There is more than sufficient instability available and 0-6 km 
shear generally in the 40-50 kt range. The convection, if it 
develops earlier in the day, may allow for a quieter afternoon 
as the airmass will be overturned from the convection. Overall 
confidence is low to moderate on the timing. There is a risk of 
some of these storms to become severe given the combination of 
shear and instability. We can't rule out an isolated tornado 
threat. 

Further south away from the front, southwest winds will be gusty 
at 15G25mph. Max temps could top out in the lower 90s over areas 
of northeast FL with resultant heat indices near 100. The front 
looks to bisect the forecast area Saturday evening from southwest 
to northeast then continue to sag southward as mid level troughing
digs southeast into the region. This will continue to support 
elevated rain chances Saturday night. 

Sunday, the front looks positioned over parts of northeast FL with
scattered to numerous showers and storms still possible, as upper
level vort lobe swings over the area. We continued high POPs still
at about 60-70 percent, which may be a little generous. Chance of
showers and a few storms lingers as a surface trough/reinforcing
front pushes through from north to south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A relatively benign weather pattern looks in store for most of 
this period with mainly dry post-frontal airmass dominating. 
There may be a few lingering showers or a storm southern most 
areas Monday before the front clears the area to the south. The 
nose of sfc high pressure then expected to persist across the 
Carolinas and GA before moving over our forecast area Wed and 
Thu. Another cold frontal boundary will then move into the 
southeast states, possibly into north GA by Thursday. Will have 
some low POPs for southern zones on Monday but at most 10-20 
percent chances rest of the period. The cooler airmass immediately
behind the front Mon and Tue and the northeast low level flow 
will let highs be in the 80s, with about 80 or so at the coast due
to northeast winds. However, temps ramp up again Wed and Thu to
upper 80s and lower 90s as high pressure will be over the area 
and upper level ridge will near us. For now on Friday, just 
slight rain chances with persistent warming temps in the lower to
mid 90s, with the weak cold front likely remaining to the north 
still.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 900 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Rain will move into the area through the early evening hours
affecting mainly the northern TAF sites during the early part of 
the TAF period, clearing out a bit past midnight. The next round 
of showers and storms will look to get going during the afternoon
tomorrow, with timing still uncertain. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Weak high pressure will linger rest of today before a weak area 
of low pressure lifts to the north tonight. A warm front will push
north over the area waters. A slow moving cold front trailing the
low will gradually push across the water late Saturday through 
Sunday, renewing chances for thunderstorms. Winds will turn 
northerly as high pressure wedges against a low pressure situated 
northeast of the waters early next week. At this time, confidence
in any small craft advisory is low from northerly flow. High 
pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of
next week.

Rip Currents: Low surf and weak winds will keep a low risk of rip
currents at area beaches. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  87  68  85 /  80  80  70  60 
SSI  73  88  70  85 /  40  60  80  60 
JAX  73  92  70  87 /  20  40  70  70 
SGJ  73  94  70  87 /  10  30  70  80 
GNV  71  91  69  86 /   0  40  70  80 
OCF  73  92  71  85 /   0  30  60  80 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$