753 
FXUS64 KAMA 140522
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1222 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Today the panhandles are still under the influence of the weather
system that is pushing off to the east. This weather system is
causing the gusty north winds that will persist through the
afternoon and early evening. Wrap around moisture from this system
is currently streaming across mainly the eastern panhandles. This
is leading to isolated rain showers and possibly even a
thunderstorm this afternoon. Areas that see a rain showers or
thunderstorms will see only light accumulations of rain as the
moisture causing them is low. Today also begins a warmer phase 
with temperatures reaching the 70s to 80s.

For Tuesday a weak ridge builds over the southern plains but this
will be flattened out by a trough in the central plains. The ridge
will bring mostly calm weather to the TX panhandles while OK being
influenced by the trough would have a low chance for rain showers
or thunderstorms. Similar to today any rain shower or 
thunderstorm that does occur wont have much moisture to work with 
so rainfall amounts will be low. As the ridge builds over the 
southern plains the winds will shift to the south but be overall 
weaker as the pressure gradient under the ridge will be loose. 
Under this ridge the temperatures will continue to increase with 
the entire panhandles expected to be firmly in the 80s. A few of 
the warmest spots could even reach 90 as early as Tuesday. 

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Thunderstorms, with a severe potential expected Wed. Highs in the
80s expected across mainly the southeastern two thirds of the
combined Panhandles. A frontal passage is progged to come through
late Wed/Wed night with cooler temperatures in the 70s for Thu.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are also expected Thu into
Thu night as well. Slight chances for thunderstorms may exist for
the far southeastern TX Panhandle early Fri. However, Fri through
the weekend is looking dry with temperatures warming into the 90s
for Sat/Sun afternoon. 

Wed a mid to upper level trough is expected to bring some mid
level moisture to the area as well as the aforementioned cold
front Wed. A surface high over the Gulf of the Mexico is expected
to bring some surface moisture up through south and western
portions of Texas. This moisture is expected to pick up just in
time for some late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. PVA with
the expected shortwave trough, as well as the expected cold front
may bring in some additional forcing for ascent late Wed. Have
stuck with the NBM that gives chance PoPs for the afternoon and
early evening hours, and increases to likely PoPs going into the
evening/overnight hours as the front approaches. Although the 
front is expected late Wed night, the initial wind shift to the 
north my be early in the day and play a role in storm 
development and location of the severe storms. Storms will still 
have a chance to initiate off of convective temperatures being 
reached. If storms do get going early from convective temperatures
they will have enough CAPE around 1000-1500 J/Kg (potentially 
higher depending on model) for storms to become severe. Strong 
inverted V forecast soundings suggest wind could be the main 
severe factor starting off. Confidence in the magnitude and 
coverage of severe storms remains low at this time due to factors 
such as the timing of the front and timing of the main dynamics 
aloft.

Once the front completely comes through the combined Panhandles 
severe storms become less of a threat overnight with an increase 
in a threat for flooding. Moisture flux is expected to pick up 
overnight with forecast sounding looking more tropical in nature 
with times of heavy rain possible. The main shortwave aloft is 
expected Thu night with continued rain chances all the way thru 
Fri morning. After this system exits, ridging begins to take place
with much of the area reaching the 90s for Sat and again Sun. 

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds
will be out of the south and southwest at 5-15 kts throughout the
majority of the TAF period. Winds will be more variable at 5-10
kts towards the end of the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear
throughout the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                87  55  87  54 /  10  10  30  60 
Beaver OK                  87  54  85  54 /   0  20  40  60 
Boise City OK              86  50  78  49 /  20  20  50  50 
Borger TX                  91  56  89  57 /   0  10  40  60 
Boys Ranch TX              90  52  88  54 /  10  10  30  50 
Canyon TX                  88  54  87  54 /  10  10  30  60 
Clarendon TX               84  56  87  57 /   0  10  40  70 
Dalhart TX                 86  48  82  50 /  10  10  30  50 
Guymon OK                  88  52  82  51 /  10  20  40  60 
Hereford TX                90  54  87  54 /   0  10  30  50 
Lipscomb TX                86  56  87  56 /   0  10  30  70 
Pampa TX                   85  56  86  55 /   0  10  40  60 
Shamrock TX                84  56  88  57 /   0  10  40  70 
Wellington TX              84  56  89  57 /   0  10  40  70 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...29