796 
FXUS64 KMOB 131943
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The line of storms that brought the damaging wind gusts and heavy
rain to the area this morning have moved east with lingering light
rain across coastal Alabama and Florida. In the wake of these
storms, a rain cooled, stable airmass exists. The question is just
how much airmass recovery can take place. Current thinking is that
the most unstable airmass will remain offshore, keeping any
additional severe risk offshore as well. Near term CAMS have 
consolidated on the next round of storms moving mainly offshore 
or possibly skirting the coast tonight. This will be something to
watch through the evening hours to see if the airmass is able to 
recover more than expected. Heavy rain remains a possibility, 
especially near the coast and the Flash Flood Watch remains in 
effect for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida. High rain 
chances continue into Tuesday morning as a broad southwest flow 
continues ahead of an upper level trough. By late Tuesday morning 
into the afternoon, rain chances will decrease as a drier airmass 
moves into the area.

Low temps tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s
along the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s.
/13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Axis of upper level storm system/trough axis is progged to be  
aligned from the Mid MS River Valley southward to the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday night. There appears to be just enough, albeit weak
lift lingering Tuesday night to support only a slight chance of 
showers/storms over the eastern zones from Greenville AL 
southward to east of Navarre FL. After midnight, as drier air
begins to filter in from west to east and expand, rain chances  
end over the land zones. The upper trof pivots eastward Wednesday 
and with the surface front well east and south of the local area
along with drier deep layer air in place, rain-free weather is on
tap Wednesday/Wednesday night. 

Low temperatures in the lower/mid 60s interior and lower/mid 70s 
coast Tuesday night are well above normal. Wednesday night lows, 
see a lowering trend to a range of 58 to 63 interior to upper half
of the 60s coast. Highs Wednesday range mostly 84 to 88. /10

Along the beaches, the rip current risk remains High through mid
week. /10

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The southern stream remains active going into the medium range. An
evolving upper level storm system over TX sends rounds of 
shortwave energy eastward through a nearly zonal upper flow
pattern over the deep south Thursday and Friday. Increased ascent
will operate on a signal of deep Gulf moisture return resulting 
in an increase in showers/storms. There are some indications of 
yet another heavy rain event possibly setting up to close out the 
week. As far as strong to potentially severe storms, guidance 
points to Friday. All depends on position of the warm-front late 
in the week. Model solutions differ on the evolution of the 
boundary/warm sector and degree of moisture, lift, instability, 
and shear. Stalled front may linger near-by into the weekend to 
keep a mention of a small PoP going.

Daytime highs through the period mostly well into the 80s.
Exception being Friday where overcast conditions and higher 
coverage of showers/storms keep highs tapered back, 78 to 83.
Lows moderate to well into the 60s interior to lower 70s 
coast. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A moderate to strong south to southwest flow will
develop tonight and continue into Tuesday. A light westerly flow
develops on Wednesday and become southerly for the end of the 
week. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  86  65  88  64  86  69  83 /  90  60  10  10   0  20  40  80 
Pensacola   71  84  71  86  67  85  73  83 /  90  80  10  10   0  20  40  70 
Destin      72  82  73  85  69  84  74  83 /  80  90  20  10   0  20  30  70 
Evergreen   66  85  64  86  60  88  66  82 /  80  70  10   0   0  10  50  80 
Waynesboro  65  86  61  86  60  86  64  81 /  70  50  10   0   0  20  60  80 
Camden      65  84  63  84  59  85  64  79 /  70  50  10   0   0  10  50  80 
Crestview   66  84  66  88  60  89  66  84 /  90  80  20  10   0  10  30  70 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for 
     GMZ630>632-634-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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