National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDDMX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX
Product Timestamp: 2024-04-11 09:37 UTC
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919 FXUS63 KDMX 110937 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 437 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and some thunderstorms expected today, especially in the north and east. Rainfall amounts generally under 0.10" possible. - Fire weather concerns remain for today and tomorrow, but are limited by lower curing today and moisture content tomorrow. - Very warm weather this weekend through Monday. -Thunderstorm chances Monday afternoon into the overnight hours. Severe weather initially looks possible in southwest Iowa (15% risk). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 434 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 A boundary located in southeast Iowa continued to fight against dry air overnight, producing light showers. Meanwhile, GOES water vapor imagery illustrates a series of PV anomalies dropping down from the Dakotas. The first of the two will bring rain to northern Iowa this morning and later expand in eastern Iowa through the afternoon as it phases with the upper level trough east of the state. As mentioned in previous discussions, moisture associated with the main upper level trough will have minimal, if any, contribution to rain today, leaving us with the meager moisture content of the PV anomalies. A noticeable change in this issuance is a higher presence of CAPE in soundings in the afternoon hours. Have introduced thunderstorm chances to reflect this possibility. Consequently, a more convective nature to the showers has been reflected in the slightly higher QPF amounts this afternoon. Storms that hold together could produced localized rainfall amounts up to a tenth of an inch of rain. The other component of today will be the winds. Not much change compared to the previous forecast issuance. CAA and a tightening pressure gradient will increase the winds through the afternoon hours. Gusts will focus in the north and east overnight as the jet aloft increases with the pressure gradient. Stronger CAA in this region will preserve some mixing after sunset. Combine with this layer subsidence and sporadic 35mph gusts are possible at times, especially before midnight. In regards to fire weather concerns, Thursday and Friday both feature low RH values and elevated winds. A surge of dry air will invade just behind the PV anomaly's cloud deck and drop RH values into the low 20s in the southwest. Curing in this region of the state is starting to decrease as grass greens up, meaning the area will be less vulnerable. Have elected to forego issuance any fire weather headlines for today, but extreme caution while burning should be taken due to the winds. Fire weather potential for Friday will continue to be evaluated. Higher winds will be located generally where rain will fall today and may inhibit fire weather conditions. Well advertised warm weather is still on track for this weekend and will also linger into the start of next week. H850 temperatures nearing 16C will advect over the southwest half of the state and will push into the 80s. Southerly flow enhances on Monday as a trough deepens over the Plains with temperatures reaching the mid 80s. Now to talk about the round of storms we could see next week. The ensemble guidance mean negatively tilts this trough and intensifies it as it arrives in the region. Ensemble guidance paints a 50% prob of CAPE exceeding 1000J Monday afternoon across western Iowa with a mean deep layer shear of 30kts. That's enough of the basic ingredients for severe weather, hence the slight risk in the southwest. Timing and location discrepancies remain and will be better refined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 A boundary is moving across Iowa and will bring a switch to northwest winds for all sites early. The wind will become gusty late tonight into early Thursday then increase through mid day. Some gusts in excess of 35 kt are possible. Cigs will lower into Thursday also with a period of MVFR cigs possible though confidence in duration is low. A few showers or even isolated thunderstorms could occur Thursday. Conditions are expected to start and improve late in the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jimenez AVIATION...Donavon