674 
FNUS73 KTOP 101313
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for KPBS Prescribed Watershed With EPA Sampling...EPA
National Weather Service Topeka KS
813 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 10. 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds are expected to increase from the northwest late tonight and
especially into Thursday. By 8am Thursday, sustained NW winds are
forecast to be 15-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph. The burn site
should see winds on the higher end of these ranges during the
afternoon hours before dropping to under 10 mph around sunset.
Drier air looks to filter in Thursday afternoon as well. The
morning starts with RH around 60% at 8am, falling below 40% by
noon, and then to its lowest point between 4-7 pm around 22%. RH
then recovers above 30% by 8pm Thursday and slowly rises above 50%
overnight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. 
Chance of pcpn......10 percent. 
Temperature.........49 at ignition...Max 71. 
RH..................69 percent at ignition...Min 27 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........ 
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise 
                    Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in 
                    the late morning and early afternoon, then 
                    shifting to the north 8 to 10 mph late in the 
                    afternoon. 
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 9400 ft AGL. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /2100 knot-ft/ at ignition. 
                    Max...excellent /86600 knot-ft/ increasing to 
                    excellent (119900 knot-ft) late in the 
                    afternoon. 
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated 
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6. 

TIME (CDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  
Weather cov.....                                   
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                   
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     10     
Temp............49     60     65     70     71     
RH..............69     49     38     29     27     
20 FT wind dir..S      NW     N      N      N      
20 FT wind spd..3      5      6      8      9      
20 FT wind gust.       11     12     13     14     
Mix hgt (ft)....400    1400   4400   7900   9400   
Haines index....6      5      5      5      5      
SDspl kt-ft/10002      7      35     87     141    

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
Temperature.........Max 64. 
RH..................Min 22 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........ 
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 17 to 20 mph with gusts to 
                    around 30 mph. 
Mixing height.......8200 ft AGL. 
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14200 knot-ft) early in the morning 
                    increasing to excellent (105900 knot-ft) in the 
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (152700 
                    knot-ft) late in the morning. 
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM         
Sky cover.......CLEAR        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       
Weather cov.....                                       
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE         
Tstm cov........                                       
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0            
Temp............46           53           62           
RH..............55           50           29           
20 FT wind dir..NW           NW           NW           
20 FT wind spd..18           20           20           
20 FT wind gust.27           28           30           
Mix hgt (ft)....700          3700         7400         
Haines index....4            3            4            
SDspl kt-ft/100014           106          223          

$$
Forecaster...Picha
Requested by...Matthew Huyser
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2409022.1/TOP
.DELDT 04/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL huyser.matthew@epa.gov