294 
FXUS64 KMEG 092015
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
315 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

An active weather pattern will remain in place through Wednesday
as multiple rounds of rainfall impact the Mid-South. Severe
weather chances remain for portions of the area on Wednesday along
with flooding concerns. A Flood Watch remains in effect through
7AM Thursday for areas along and south of the TN/MS border. Much
quieter conditions will return by the end of the work week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Mid-
South over the next 48 hours as a stationary front remains draped
over western Arkansas. Expect precipitation activity to train over
the same areas with portions of north Mississippi forecast to see
4 - 5 inches of rain through Thursday evening. 

There exists a low, but non-zero threat for strong to severe storm
development this evening as a secondary wave of precipitation
moves into the area. The greatest potential for storm development
will be in the Mississippi Delta, where bulk shear exceeds 60 kts.
Overall, the thermodynamic profile looks relatively meager as
SBCAPE values struggle to top 150 J/kg. However, given the
aforementioned shear and elevated lapse rates, a damaging wind 
threat may emerge for a few hours this evening.

Severe weather chances return on Wednesday with the Storm
Prediction Center placing the majority of the Mid-South in a
Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storm development. The 18Z HRRR
continues a southerly shift in the greatest severe potential with
the warm sector situated along and south of I-20. In addition, the
environment across the Mid-South does not look too impressive for
severe storm development as SBCAPE values will remain below 500
J/kg with lapse rates up to 6 C/km. A storm or two may be able to
tap into the existing 65 kts of available bulk shear and produce
damaging winds. However, the greatest threat for this will likely
occur in the afternoon hours over portions of northeast
Mississippi. 

The greatest concern on Wednesday will be the potential for
flooding as several areas remain primed from recent rains.
Additional rainfall in excess of 3 inches will further aggravate 
rivers and streams, producing a flooding threat across the area. 
The Weather Prediction Center has included the majority of the 
Mid- South in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall through 
Wednesday. If traveling tomorrow, remember to turn around, don't 
drown. 

As the aforementioned front finally swings through the area, there
is some signal for a wake low to develop over north Mississippi
before trekking northeast into Middle TN. The greatest potential
for 25 mph + winds will occur Wednesday evening over northeast
Mississippi. Decided to forgo a Wind Advisory at this time due to
criteria only being met for an hour or two before pushing east
into AL/TN. 

Much quieter conditions return for the end of the week into the
weekend. 

ANS 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Unsettled aviation conditions will continue through the current
TAF period as a nearly stationary boundary remains close the
region and several upper level disturbances move over the area.
Widespread rain and MVFR/IFR conditions have been impacting the 
entire area this morning, but so far there has been no thunder. 
According to the latest radar trends, all sites, except KTUP will 
have a break from the heaviest rain the next several hours. 
Another round of showers will impact the region around sunset. 
KTUP will have the highest probability of -TSRA with that round. 
For the final round of this TAF period, which will begin mid- 
morning/afternoon on Wednesday, probabilities are higher for 
-TSRA occurring at all TAF sites. Regardless of the rain, 
 MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF 
 period as low clouds persist. 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...KRD