938 
FXUS63 KBIS 120216
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
916 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures are expected north central to above
  normal elsewhere through Wedneday, although Wednesday will be
  a touch cooler.

- Dry weather is expected through Tuesday, with low to medium
  chances (20 to 40 percent) for precipitation Tuesday night 
  through Wednesday night, with a modest cooling trend starting 
  Wednesday.

- Low chances (around 15 to 20 percent) for precipitation return 
  along with breezy to windy conditions Friday and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Minimal changes were made to the forecast for this update, just
blended the current observations. The signal for patchy fog
across the north has further weakened, so we've kept any mention
of fog out of the grids.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Not much needed to be changed with this update, just blended in
the current observations to the forecast. High clouds continue
to stream across the area from the southwest. Some short range
models suggest the potential for overnight fog development
across the far north central, however this signal remains rather
weak.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

As a low amplitude ridge axis moves off to the east towards the
Minnesota border, a weak short wave continues to traverse
western and central North Dakota, leading to plenty of high
clouds. These clouds may keep temperatures down just a little
bit, but highs are still expected to be above normal across all
of western and central North Dakota, including well above normal
temperatures the central and south. Highs this afternoon will 
range from the mid to upper 40s north, to the upper 50s and 
lower 60s south. 

Clouds may decrease a bit overnight as lows dip into the low to
mid 20s north and the upper 20s to lower 30s south. Low
amplitude ridging will once again move across the state on
Tuesday, leading to temperatures similar today. However, another
weak wave will be on the heels of ridging so we will see
increasing clouds again. The weak wave will then skirt the north
with most of the forcing either along or north of the
International Border. This wave will bring low to medium chances
of precipitation back into the forecast late afternoon and into 
the overnight hours, first northwest and then into the north 
central. Precipitation should start out as light rain over the 
northwest, but some light freezing rain and even some snow may 
mix in overnight and into Wednesday morning across the north 
central, including the Turtle Mountains. Taking a closer look at
soundings, there is definitely some support for freezing rain 
but there could also be some periods of freezing drizzle mixed 
in as we lose ice aloft. Whether there will be any ice
accumulation is a bit more uncertain, as several days of
temperatures above freezing will likely limit how cold surfaces
can get. Low chances for lingering light rain and/or snow will
hang around over mainly the far north on Wednesday/Wednesday
evening, but another weak wave may bring some low chances for
light rain to the far south as well. The NBM doesn't currently
show any precipitation chances for Thursday, but a number of
ensemble members are starting to show at least small chances 
for some light precipitation across the west during the 
afternoon. 

Wednesday will mark the beginning of a modest cool down. Highs
will still be above normal but will range from the mid to upper
30s north to the low to mid 50s south. By Thursday, highs will 
range from the low to mid 30s north to the lower 40s south.

Friday will then be a bit warmer and breezy as we transition to
northwest flow aloft and a clipper/cold front approaches the 
region. The north and east trend in recent days for this system 
continues and now we are only seeing low chances for light rain 
and snow across our far northeast late Friday. However, we may 
see a better chance for some light wrap around snow across the 
central and east on Saturday by the time we get closer. Behind 
the clipper, temperatures will be a bit cooler on Saturday and 
Sunday with highs forecast to generally be in the lower 30s to 
lower 40s. Breezy to windy northwest winds are likely to hang 
around most of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

VFR conditions are present across all terminals, and is expected
to remain VFR throughout the TAF period. High clouds are
currently passing over all locations and will continue to do so.
Cloud coverage will increase slightly through the TAF period, as
the next wave makes it's approach, however VFR ceilings are 
expected to prevail. Low chances for precipitation arrive in
the northwest, specifically KXWA, near the end of the TAF 
period, so we've added in some VCSH there at 21z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Besson
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...Besson