National Weather Service Raw Text Product

949 
FXUS62 KMHX 202012
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
312 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will deepen well offshore through mid-week as 
ridging persists inland. The next frontal system will impact the
area later Thursday and Friday. High pressure returns by late 
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tues...Mid/upper level cloudiness associated with an
upper level low continues to move slowly offshore this
afternoon, with mostly sunny skies present for all but the Outer
Banks and Pamlico-Albemarle peninsula. Inland temps have risen 
into the mid 50s, while upper 40s to low 50s remain along the 
coast. Surface high pressure will remain in place tonight and
keep skies mostly clear. Breezy conditions will continue as a
tight gradient remains in place between the high and a deepening
low several hundred miles off the NC coast. The light wind
should hold up an otherwise prime radiational cooling night, but
even so temperatures will drop into the low 30s or even upper
20s over the coastal plain, and mid to upper 30s closer to the
coast (40s beaches).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tues...Very similar conditions to Tuesday are
expected Wednesday with a ridge of high pressure over the
Eastern Seaboard, and a strong area of low pressure out over 
the western Atlantic. The gradient between the two will remain 
tight locally, but will be slightly weaker than Tuesday (20-30 
mph winds on OBX, 15-20 mph inland). High temps should reach the
mid to upper 50s for most inland locations while areas along the
Outer Banks and Inner Banks remain in the upper 40s to low 50s
due to the onshore flow off cold waters. Skies will be mostly
sunny inland while across the Outer Banks a mix of sun and
clouds are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...A series of mid-level troughs push across 
the area by the middle portion of this week, however SFC high 
pressure will continue to dominate with dry conditions 
prevailing across ENC through most of the work week. A front 
will pass through the area Friday, bringing the next best chance
of rain.

Thurs will be the transition period between Nerly low level 
flow flipping around the SWerly ahead of the next front. Out of 
phase mid and upper level troughs continue pushing offshore and 
out to sea leading to more zonal flow aloft midweek. The SFC low
well offshore centered ~500mi due E of Hatt midmorning 
Wednesday will continue funneling cool high pressure over the 
area from the N. With winds expected to decouple inland and 
mostly clear skies overnight, have trended forecast toward the 
cooler side of guidance, particularly for MinTs Wed night/Thurs 
am. Very minimal changes to forecast for the front at the end of
the week stemming from a SFC low digging S toward the Great 
Lakes through Canada. The front swings through the Plains Thurs,
reaching the Wern reaches of NC early Friday. Cloud coverage 
increases Thursday into Fri. This strong frontal system is 
expected to finally bring a few showers after midnight Thursday 
night into Friday. However, moisture content is less than 
impressive, with the highest PWAT values associated with FROPA 
just above one inch. With FROPA occuring around peak heating, 
some instability may be in play which could lead to some 
thunder. For now, have kept forecast thunder free but will 
continue to monitor. High pressure briefly builds over the FA 
behind the front, pushing offshore late Sunday.

Temps display warming trend continuing through the work week
with MaxTs in the mid 60s Thurs and Fri in the Serly flow ahead
of the front. We cool off briefly behind the front next 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 3 PM Tues...VFR conditions are present this afternoon
across the airspace, and are expected to continue through the
TAF period. An upper level low which has provided areas of
mid/high clouds will continue to slide off the coast through
tonight, with skies remaining mostly clear inland and over the
TAF sites. A persistent breeze, gusting to 20-25 mph this
afternoon, will continue tonight which will limit surface
moisture pooling and the threat of any fog. Mostly sunny skies
with a continued north breeze continues tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions expected in the long 
term. A cold front moves through the area Friday bringing the 
next best chance of rain and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Tues...Small craft conditions will continue through
tomorrow for most of the coastal waters and inland sounds/rivers
as a tight pressure gradient persists between high pressure to
the west and a deep low pressure system off the NC coast.

Winds of 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will continue through
much of tonight. By early tomorrow morning, the strongest winds
will shift to the coast and offshore while areas across the
inland sounds and rivers see winds subside to 10-20 kts. North
winds of 20-30 kts will continue across the coastal waters
tomorrow, and finally begin to weaken by tomorrow evening.

Seas will be mostly 5-8 ft through tomorrow morning, and then
will increase tomorrow to 6-10 ft north of Cape Lookout as long
period swell from the offshore low arrives and increases. 

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Tues...SCA conditions across the coastal waters will
continue into this weekend. Lull in strong winds Thurs as winds
flip around to become SWerly late Thurs 10kt or less in the 
afternoon but will increase in speed to become 15-25G30kt by Fri
morning ahead of the next front to pass through area waters 
late Fri.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Tues...Strong long period swell (8-10 ft) from a low
pressure system well offshore will lead to a risk of beach 
erosion and minor ocean overwash Thursday and Friday during 
times around high tide. The threat will be greatest in the 
vicinity of compromised dune structures.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ131-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Saturday for AMZ150-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for 
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX