National Weather Service Raw Text Product

495 
FXUS63 KAPX 201632
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1132 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures into Thursday.

- Colder with lake effect snow chances Friday into Saturday.

- Unseasonably mild again Sunday and beyond, potentially with
  rain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

Inherited forecast remains in good shape this morning with 
plentiful sunshine near and south of M-32. More cloud cover 
north, especially across eastern upper. Temperatures rebounding 
nicely from another chilly start earlier this morning -- 
especially for those that have seen sunshine so far.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Pattern Synopsis: Surface high pressure will move east, across 
and off of New England. This will increase warm advection into
the region, though moisture will remain pretty scant. Slowing
low pressure moves toward the north tip of Superior tonight.

Forecast: A chilly start to the morning away from the coasts,
lots of 10-15f out there in the interior, and a smattering of
single-digit readings. There's some thin cirrus, especially in 
northern lower MI, and a little stratus forming, especially in
the lower St Marys Valley. Anticipate a partly to mostly sunny
day across of the area, with more sun south than north. By
afternoon, mid-clouds will be trying to thicken over eastern
upper MI.

Tonight, warm and moist advection will continue to increase in
the sub-800mb layer. There's no particularly notable focus for
precip, with the primary warm front way north of Superior. Do
think stratocu and stratus will be on the increase across the
area. A few spots of DZ or sprinkles may be possible, though
progged saturation in the moist layer is not total, per BUFR
soundings. Will keep that out of the forecast for the moment.

Max temps from mid-upper 30s north, to mid 40s south. Low temps
much milder tonight, upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

NW flow and attendant NW-SE oriented BCZ stretching through southern 
Canada to our north, scraping through the EUP. Additional shortwave 
trough just upstream over the central Plains/Mid MS Valley...with 
surface low over SD and a warm front extending into the Chicago 
area...and attendant mid/high clouds stretching over WI into central 
MI. Bulk of the activity attm is across the western US...where an 
upper low off the OR coast is shoving a surface cold front 
inland...driving strong difluence in the midst of good Pacific 
moisture. 

Warm advection to take hold of the region as southwesterly flow 
increases through the next couple days. Still expecting a weak 
boundary to drop into the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night, 
which could set off a few sprinkles or light rain showers. This 
boundary is expected to stall over the region...slowly dropping 
through Thursday as energy crossing the central Plains triggers 
additional development somewhere along the boundary. Still some 
uncertainty in where the best surface pressure falls will take place 
Wednesday night into Thursday -- whether it will be further south, 
toward the OH Valley, or further north, toward southern Lower. 
Attention then turns to central Canada...with a lobe of energy 
zipping down into Ontario Thursday into Thursday night...driving a 
stronger cold front south toward the area for the end of the 
workweek. 

Primary Forecast Concerns: 

PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...Stalled boundary from 
Wednesday could keep precip (likely in the form of rain) near 
Saginaw Bay going into Thursday. Otherwise...think the better chance 
for precip will be late Thursday night into the Friday morning 
commute with that arctic front. Do expect temps should fall off 
fairly quickly along/behind this front...and given potential for a 
burst of snow along the front, do have to wonder if we will have to 
keep an eye out for some snow squall-ish activity? Not sure how 
rigorous this activity will be, though...which could additionally 
lend some concern as far as ice nucleation/freezing drizzle is 
concerned...though think this latter idea is fairly low attm. 
Primary concern for Thursday night will likely be the falling temps 
combined with the burst of snow Thursday night going into the Friday 
morning commute, as there are signals most areas, even along the M-
55 corridor, could/should be at or below freezing by around midday 
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 

LAKE EFFECT RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...Lobe of polar energy 
dropping into Ontario Friday is expected to drag a sharp cold front 
into the region from the north, likely bringing a burst of snow 
during the Friday morning commute (see above). Think this will 
likely drive a return to lake effect...as winds turn more northerly 
in its wake; if better moisture aloft approaches with Friday 
afternoon, as some guidance currently suggests, there is potential 
for a bit more widespread snow Friday afternoon/evening as well. 
Surface high pressure tries to settle into the region Saturday, 
though whether it will be strong enough to overcome lake aggregate 
trough remains to be seen; this should also have some influence on 
overnight lows, particularly Friday night. Signals point toward 
another clipper diving toward the area Saturday night into Sunday, 
which has potential to keep the lake effect idea in play through the 
weekend...though it is possible this may remain far enough north to 
preclude much in the way of an influence on our weather, 
particularly if southwest flow ends up bullish enough to diminish 
overlake instability quicker than expected. Struggled to get the 
idea of lake effect in the forecast for the extended, but do hold 
onto this idea for now. 

WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK... Guidance 
points toward strengthening southwesterly flow over the central 
CONUS for early next week in the wake of the aforementioned clipper. 
There is a great deal of uncertainty attm in how things evolve...but 
signals appear quite favorable for active weather to take hold of 
the center of the country, perhaps including the Upper Great 
Lakes...going into the start of next week. Given potential for 
increasingly mild air early next week...current thoughts are this 
/should/ be a wet/rainy system...but stay tuned for details as they 
become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
LIFR fog/stratus at CIU/PLN to start the morning, otherwise VFR.

High pressure continues to exit eastward, and warmer air is 
returning northward. With mostly clear skies, fog/stratus has 
formed at CIU/PLN. This is thickest over CIU, and expect poor
conditions to be more persistent there. Still expect VFR
by early afternoon. 

Light se winds. Some potential for LLWS late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure continues to move east, allowing southerly breezes
to increase today. Winds/waves look to remain below advisory
levels, but those levels will be approached, especially toward
the northern tips of Lakes MI and Huron. Winds will become more
sw-erly by late Wednesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJG
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ