397 
FXUS61 KBGM 201113
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
613 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered over the region and this will
continue to bring a period of quiet and mostly sunny weather 
through Wednesday. Temperatures will be warm and above normal through
the week. A cold front will bring the next chance of rain 
showers Thursday into Friday, before colder temperatures arrive 
for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 AM Update:

High pressure is centered over the region and will continue to
bring mostly sunny skies and quiet conditions through the
period. Main forecast challenge is the large diurnal temperature
trend. The mostly sunny skies today and weak southerly flow will
send high temperatures climbing into the upper 30s to low 40s 
across much of the area. However, those clear skies and light
winds will make for another good radiational cooling set up
tonight. Dropped overnight lows a few degrees below guidance and
upper teens to low 20s is expected for the entire area, with 
the usual colder spots and the sheltered valleys dropping down 
to the mid teens. Wednesday will be another warm day, with
temperatures in most areas topping 40 degrees for afternoon
highs and mid to upper 40s expected across the Finger Lakes
Region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update...

An upper-level trough far north into Canada allows south-
southwesterly flow Thursday to advect warmer air into the area,
with temperatures rising into the low- to mid-40s for Thursday
and Friday. A shortwave moving into the area off of this trough
will bring mostly rain showers, with the possibility of some
snow mixed in for higher elevations, Thursday morning for areas
west of I-81, and by mid-morning/early afternoon for areas east
of I-81. These showers will remain through Friday, where a blast
of colder air behind this shortwave heading into Friday night
will begin to transition these mostly rain showers into a mix of
rain and snow showers for the majority of the area overnight
Thursday. Any possible snow accumulation will be light in
nature; ranging from a trace to a tenth or two-tenths of an inch
of snow accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
320 AM Update...

Saturday will be the coldest day between the short and long term
forecast periods, with potential highs only reaching the
mid-20s. Temperatures are expected to warm back up to the low-
to mid-40s the very next day on Sunday, and continue a warming
trend into early next week, as south-southwesterly flow becomes
dominant again, feeding into the warming trend. Chances for
mostly rain showers are possible Sunday as a weaker shortwave
quickly swings through the area, before a bigger, much messier-
looking system populates in model guidance at the very end of
the long-term forecast period with chances for rain showers
heading into early next week. Since it's at the end of the long-
term period, confidence in timing and strength for this messier
system is quite low, and we'll keep monitoring it as we head
closer to this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will keep VFR conditions at all sites through the
TAF period, with light winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday night...VFR.

Thursday through Thursday night...Occasional restrictions 
possible in rain showers, especially during the afternoon and
overnight.

Friday...Occasional restrictions possible in some lingering rain
showers, especially in the morning.

Friday night through Saturday...Scattered lake effect snow 
showers with associated restrictions, mainly at the Central NY
terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPK