National Weather Service Raw Text Product

379 
FXUS63 KUNR 201048
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
348 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
136 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2024

- Dry and mild conditions will persist through the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 136 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2024

Current WV imagery depicts plume of upper level moisture 
associated with a weak shortwave over western MT passing over the 
CWA. At the sfc, a stationary front drapes across MT extending 
southeast into northwest SD. Compressional warming due to light, 
southwesterly flow at the surface is keeping things warm across 
most of the CWA with stations in northeastern WY, southwestern SD,
and east of the Black Hills reporting temps in the upper 30s to 
40s. Radar is mostly clear save for a few light returns in 
northeastern WY, with the dry air at the sfc it's doubtful 
anything is reaching the ground. 

Weather will be fairly consistent for the next several days. 
Westerly-southwesterly flow aloft will lend to compressional 
warming and above average temperatures. EPS/GEFS/GEPS guidances 
continues to depict high (70-90%+) probs of temperature anomalies 
exceeding 10 degrees F through this weekend. A few embedded
waves will trek across the region namely on Tuesday/Wednesday and
a stronger shortwave will pass to the south of the region on 
Thursday. Very little moisture will be associated with any of 
these waves and LREF guidance has 0% probs for 24 hr precip 
exceeding 0.1" over most of the CWA by late Thursday. Therefore 
confidence is medium to high that there will be no precip for the
next several days and the main impacts with these waves will be 
increasing cloudiness and breezy conditions. 

With the diminishing snow cover, unseasonably warm temperatures, 
dry weather, and breezy conditions - should take some fire weather
potential into consideration. RHs and winds are not anticipated 
to approach critical levels, however some areas in the 
northwestern and southwestern SD, and northeastern WY could see 
localized elevated fire weather risk this afternoon and Wednesday 
afternoon as temperatures warm, RHs drop, and winds pick up.

The westerly/southwesterly quasi-zonal flow will continue through
Wednesday before an upper low swings south over the Hudson Bay 
and a trough digs into the Great Lakes/Midwest. This will bring us
under more northwesterly flow, though as mentioned above - 
ensemble guidance is consistent in depicting temperatures 
remaining above average through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 347 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...Helgeson