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993 FXUS63 KUNR 200438 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 938 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1256 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2024 - Mild and dry weather will persist through the week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1256 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2024 Water vapor and infrared imagery show departing shortwave trough pivoting through the eastern Dakotas and into the Upper Midwest. Further upstream, a leading shortwave trough is ejecting into the Northern Rockies with upper level moisture streaming into the western portion of the forecast area. Shortwave ridging is centered between the two shortwaves, with the thermal axis stretching from MT southward into CO. A weak surface low is centered over eastern SD with breezy northwesterly winds across western SD and NE WY this afternoon. Broadly west-southwesterly flow will continue through mid-week. A few weak shortwaves embedded within the flow will yield increases in cloudiness and breeziness Tuesday into Wednesday, although no precipitation is expected at this time. A more pronounced shortwave will eject through the Central Plains Wednesday into Thursday, although most precipitation should remain to our south. Flow will turn northwesterly for the latter half of the week, but GEFS/EPS/GEPS guidance continue to indicate warmer than normal temperatures into the weekend (via surface and 850mb temp anomalies). Ensemble cluster analysis highlights potential for an upper trough to dig into the southwestern US by late this upcoming weekend into early next week. While ensemble surface temperature and precipitation spreads are very high, expect cooler and more unsettled weather by mid-week next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued At 938 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE AVIATION...JC