National Weather Service Raw Text Product

424 
FXUS63 KFSD 200438
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1038 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low (<30%) chance of patchy fog into Tuesday morning.

- Above normal temperatures continue, perhaps rising even 
 further into early next week. 

- Precipitation chances remain minimal with the main chance of 
  a sprinkle/very light precipitation late Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024

Tonight: Behind shortwave this afternoon, winds decrease to less 
than 10 kts and with afternoon snowmelt, wouldn't completely rule 
out some patchy fog into Tuesday morning. With that said, HREF 
probabilities are generally less than 30% for any impactful fog and 
forecast soundings generally void of fog indication. Have added in 
some patchy mention but low confidence. 

Tuesday and Wednesday: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions 
continue and have trended highs toward the upper half of guidance 
given temperature responses this afternoon. Winds will take on a 
more southerly component but remain fairly light. By late 
Wednesday/Wednesday night, mid level CAA swings though with perhaps 
enough overlap of overrunning vort lobe and mid level front to allow 
for very light precipitation. 

Thursday through Sunday: Northwest flow regime sets in through late 
week with signs of ridging shifting east by late weekend. No real 
sensible weather consequences outside of perhaps periods hedging 
toward breezy as precipitation chances remain minimal and 
temperatures above normal. Timing differences for the previously 
mentioned ridging late in the period leave lower confidence but 
depending how that evolves, well above normal temperatures look to 
result.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the period. Mid-to-high level clouds 
are flowing in from the west, and will continue overnight. These 
should not bring any impacts. Northwesterly winds have dropped of 
and become light and variable. Patchy fog is possible after 20.06Z 
due to radiational cooling. Area most at risk for fog is north of I-
90, due to available surface moisture from melting snow. Confidence 
in impacts for any TAF sites is low, as guidance continues to keep 
probability around 35%. As such, have left fog mention out for
now. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kalin
AVIATION...BP