839 
FXUS64 KMAF 140845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024

The quiet weather continues today through Thursday. Zonal mid-level 
flow remains across the southern Great Plains. This keeps conditions 
relatively steady over the next 36 hours. Temperatures this 
afternoon will be a tad warmer than yesterday with upper 60s and 
lower 70s common across the area under sunny skies. High clouds 
begin a slight increase overnight which helps keeps temperatures a 
touch warmer, mainly upper 30s and lower 40s. Nearly identical 
temperatures to Wednesday arrive Thursday, though skies will are 
expected to be partly cloudy versus sunny. Regardless, beautiful 
spring-like weather continues across the region.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024

Not much change to the long-term.  Thursday night, an upper trough 
is forecast to be over Baja del Sur, and models take it deeper into 
Mexico over the weekend. Latest trajectories keep the bulk of 
convection with this feature south of the river, but it still looks 
like a few showers could creep into the Big Bend/lower Trans Pecos 
late Thursday night/Friday.  Unfortunately, this looks to be the 
only chance for precipitation in the long term.

Friday, the cold front associated with this trough will backdoor the 
region.  Latest NAM puts fropa at KMAF at around 15Z.  Desi shows 
some play in high temperatures Friday afternoon and, considering the 
timing of the front, and its likelihood to accelerate between now 
and then, colder solutions look more likely, and we've opted for 
NBM25 as a result.  MOS still wants to bring in a few hours of high 
gap winds as the front moves through, but the wind direction by that 
time will not be favorable.

Unfortunately, CAA behind the front looks to continue into Saturday, 
when highs will struggle into the 40s and 50s most locations, around 
~ 13-15F below normal.  

The upshot is that this cold spell will be quite ephemeral, as 
surface winds veer back to return flow Saturday night and upper 
ridging builds in in the wake of the trough Sunday.  This will bring 
Sunday's highs up to near normal, with above-normal temperatures 
thereafter.  By Wednesday afternoon, highs should top out ~ 13-15F 
above normal, feeling more like early April than late February. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 911 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with an occasional high
cloud. Return flow will veer to west, increasing and becoming 
gusty by 18Z Wednesday. Winds will decouple after sundown, veering
lightly but remaining out of the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  39  72  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 70  35  70  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   70  43  71  51 /   0   0   0  10 
Fort Stockton            73  42  73  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           61  39  62  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    69  35  69  41 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    67  32  68  39 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     71  38  71  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   71  40  71  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     73  36  71  44 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91