573 
FXUS64 KLUB 030427
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1027 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024

Upper troughing is continuing to push eastward from the Desert 
Southwest while maintaining its negative tilt. Enhanced upper 
diffluence ahead of the trough is evident on water vapor imagery. 
Lift is also evident with the current ongoing shower/thunderstorm 
activity across our northeastern zones along an ahead of a dryline. 
Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected later this 
afternoon into the evening as upper diffluence increases over the 
region. Some showers/thunderstorms will be possible behind the 
dryline (on the Caprock), but lack of surface moisture will limit 
development and result in mostly virga and strong wind gusts. 
Dewpoints will be in the low to upper 50s ahead of the dryline and 
will be more than enough for convection to develop. Conditions for 
severe potential will be marginal at best, CAPE around 1000 J/kg and 
40 knots of shear. This is enough for some storms to be strong to 
severe with wind gusts up to 60 mph and 1 inch diameter hail 
possible. Precip chances will quickly push east of the FA after 
midnight. The upper trough will transition to a closed low this 
evening. The closed low and its associated surface low is expected 
to be over the Texas Panhandle before noon tomorrow and will provide 
nearly continuous westerly winds for most of the FA (the exception 
being more southerly winds across our far eastern zones). Winds will 
also be on the breezy side, 15-30 mph with the highest winds 
occurring across the southwest quarter of the FA. The westerly 
component will keep conditions on the dry side and temps mostly in 
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024

The base of the negatively-tilted trough will begin to translate 
east of the CWA at the start of the forecast period, with the 
associated cyclone at the surface and upper-levels becoming 
vertically-stacked as it rotates southeastward towards eastern 
Texas. The 994 mb surface low will also gradually weaken as it 
rotates into the Rolling Plains, and with an 850 mb jet stream 
approaching 50 kt beneath the left edge of an intense jet streak 
aloft (i.e., around 140 kt at 300 mb), blustery, northwesterly winds 
will remain intact throughout the overnight hours across the 
aforementioned locales while remaining breezy elsewhere. Mid-level 
cloud debris should linger on the backside of the stacking system, 
and will eventually advect southeastward as subsidence/NVA continues 
to advect over the CWA heading into the daytime hours Sunday. Winds 
were increased by a few kt and the 20+ kt isotach was expanded 
across the CWA from the blended initialization due to the moderating 
pressure tendencies post-FROPA and the slackening geopotential 
height gradient as the boundary-layer mixes above 800 mb. Otherwise, 
winds will remain below advisory-level on Sunday afternoon while CAA 
offsets adiabatic warming, with winds diminishing altogether upon 
the cessation of vertical mixing/near sunset. High temperatures were 
lowered by a couple of degrees to align with the raw statistical 
output based on the latter thinking.

Shortwave ridging will shift over the CWA heading into early next 
week and is expected to linger across the region as another Rex 
Block develops over the eastern two-thirds of the Lower 48. Such 
synoptic pattern to the east of the CWA will, therefore, slow the 
progression of the shortwave ridge; and warm, dry, and benign winds 
will follow on Monday as the surface anticyclone shifts eastward 
into central North Texas. Return flow is forecast to develop once 
again by Tuesday as the apex of the shortwave ridge shifts east of 
the region ahead of a positively-tilted trough digging into the 
Pacific coast. This will cause a surface trough to form across the 
region, and warm and breezy weather will continue area-wide heading 
into the latter half of the week. Most of the global NWP guidance 
suites indicate the broadening of the waveguide as the mean 
troughing pivots eastward, and this would allow for shorter-wave 
perturbations to rotate through the mean flow and eject over the 
western High Plains. However, it appears that the bulk of the moist 
ascent will remain displaced to the north of the CWA (as indicated 
in the previous prognostication). The blended, sub-mentionable 
PoPs have been accepted given the lower predictability in potential 
precipitation placement by the D6/Wednesday period and beyond. Warm 
and breezy conditions are forecast to follow through the end of next 
week irrespective if rain showers occur or not.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period.
Tomorrow morning, strong westerly winds around 20 to 30 knots will arrive
at KLBB and KPVW where they will diminish just before sunset. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...12