203 
FXUS61 KALY 282324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
624 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An ongoing storm system will continue spreading rain and wet 
snow across the region through tonight. Most areas should see a 
changeover to all snow by this evening, followed by 
precipitation winding down overnight or early Monday morning. 
Moderate to heavy accumulations are expected for the high 
terrain of the Catskills, Berkshires and Greens. Behind this 
storm, colder and mainly dry weather is expected through much of
the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
**WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
 EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, TACONICS, LITCHFIELD HILLS, 
 BERKSHIRES, AND SOUTHERN GREENS THROUGH NOON EST MONDAY**

Area of light snow with bandlets of moderate snow and some
isolated pockets of heavy snow within the upper deformation of
the upper system approaching the region. Snowfall rates around
an inch per hour in the heavier pockets and with temperatures 
in the lower 30s, the snow is wet, but accumulating on all 
surfaces now. Based on radar and satellite loops, the heaviest 
snow will be this evening, then the back edge of the heaviest 
snow moves east and exits from west to east from midnight 
through Monday morning, with light snow continuing after the 
moderate snow exits. 

Some minor adjustments to temperatures and evolution of areas of
light, moderate and locally heavy snow through tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A positively-tilted southern stream upper trough continues to
track eastwards across the Eastern US with a weakening surface
low over the Ohio Valley being replaced by an incipient coastal
low near the Delmarva Peninsula. This coastal low will continue
to deepen as it tracks to the northeast, passing offshore of
Cape Cod tonight and exiting eastward into Monday.

Locally, a dry slot over the Mid-Hudson Valley has largely
filled in again with SW-NE oriented bandlets of rain and snow 
tracking to the north as the coastal low develops to the south.
Continued intensification of the coastal low will result in 
a more solid area of light rain and snow redeveloping into the 
evening across much of the forecast area. P-type remains very 
sensitive to elevation, surface temperature, and precipitation 
rate as all-snow persists at higher elevations while valley 
areas see a variable mix of rain and snow. Marginal low-level 
temperatures and limited prospects for diabatic cooling with 
dewpoints in the upper 20s to mid 30s are resulting in a very 
wet snow with snow to liquid ratios well below seasonal 
climatology, around 6-8:1 at lower elevations and closer to 10:1
in higher terrain, limiting potential accumulations. Brief 
heavy precipitation rates within bandlets may result in 
increased wet snow accumulations, but relatively warm ground 
temperatures may further limit potential accums within valley 
areas through the afternoon.

As the deepening coastal low tracks eastward through the afternoon
and evening, increased northerly flow will allow colder air to 
begin filtering into the region. Boundary layer temperatures 
will also finally drop to or below freezing within the larger 
river valleys resulting in more widespread changeover to steady 
light snow. Mid-level frontogenesis may briefly coincide with 
the dendritic growth zone from the eastern Catskills across the 
Capital District into the northern Berkshires and southern 
Vermont, resulting in a period of possible enhanced snowfall 
rates from roughly late this afternoon into the evening, with
light snow otherwise persisting into tonight. By early Monday 
morning, the best synoptic forcing for ascent will exit to the 
east, with diminishing light snow by Monday morning. In total, 
wet snow accumulations of 6-10" are expected in higher terrain 
areas of the northeastern Catskills/Helderbergs, northern 
Berkshires, and southern Vermont, with 3-7" elsewhere in high 
terrain south of the Mohawk and east of the Hudson, and 1-4" at 
lower elevations and in northern zones. Temperatures will remain
in the mid 20s to low 30s across the region through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering snow showers will end by midday Monday as the surface
low and upper trough exit to the east, while brief upper ridging
passes over the area through Tuesday night. Overcast skies will
begin to give way to welcome breaks of sunshine by the Monday
afternoon, while high pressure over Quebec and northern New 
England will result in brisk north winds, particularly along 
the Hudson and Champlain Valleys where gusts may exceed 20-25 
mph. This northerly flow will continue to advect a much cooler 
and drier air mass into the region by Monday night, with 
afternoon highs in the upper 20s to low 30s in high terrain and 
30s at lower elevations giving way to lows in the teens to low 
20s by early Tuesday morning.

Dry weather will continue into Tuesday with surface high
pressure remaining in control and daytime highs only reaching 
the mid 20s to mid 30s across the region despite lighter winds. 
Temperatures remain cool into Tuesday night with lows in the mid
teens to low 20s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure centered near or just off the New England coast 
combined with an upper-level low/trough and surface disturbance 
passing by to our south will bring continued dry weather on 
Wednesday with highs mainly in the 30s. From Thursday into Friday, a 
positively tilted northern stream trough will build across the 
region. A surface low will pass by to our north with a cold front 
crossing the region. Moisture assistance from the Great Lakes along 
and ahead of the front will bring our next best chance at some 
precipitation. Thermal profiles will generally support snow across 
the higher elevations and a rain/snow mix across the valleys. 
Currently looks to be a light precipitation event with minor snow 
accumulations for the higher elevations. Highs Thursday will be in 
the 30s to lower 40s with upper 20s to lower 40s on Friday.

This trough may eventually cut off somewhere near or east of the 
region over the weekend. A new surface low may develop just off to 
our east as well. Moist, cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes could 
result in some lingering snow showers and flurries over the weekend, 
mainly on Saturday. Otherwise, it will be brisk and colder with 
highs both days in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All TAF sites seeing snow and predominant conditions are IFR,
with periods of LIFR possible in moderate snow. Snow will become
lighter after midnight but ceilings will likely be near or just
above 1000 feet and visibilities around 3SM. Snow showers end 
around 14Z as visibilities increase to VFR but ceilings remain
MVFR. Although, KPOU could become VFR after 14Z. Some lingering
flurries are possible Monday afternoon in KPSF, so VCSH 
included there.

North to northeast winds at less than 10 Kt tonight becoming
north to northwest at around 10 Kt by midday Monday morning and
continuing Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Monday for CTZ001.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Monday for NYZ047-048-
     054-061-063.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for NYZ051-058.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Monday for MAZ025.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for MAZ001.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Monday for VTZ013-015.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for VTZ014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...NAS/Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...NAS