287 
FXUS64 KSHV 252010
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
210 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

Finally the rain has come to an end across the Four State Region
and has pulled well east of our region this afternoon. Vis
Satellite is even showing some breaks in the low overcast across
our region but the partial clearing will be temporary 
unfortunately as the cloud cover should fill back in quickly 
overnight. Progs are hinting at fog development across portions of
the Four State Region once again but confidence is low on just 
how dense it will be and how widespread it will be given the low 
cloud cover in place currently. For this reason, will just 
advertise patchy fog wording with our forecast and allow future 
shifts to assist in the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory if 
necessary. 

The drying trend will be very temporary as our upper flow pattern
remains from the southwest as the upstream upper trough across the
Intermountain West reloads with yet more Pacific energy tonight
into Friday. This trough slowly ejects out into the OK/TX Pnhdl
region into the Texas Hill Country and Southern Plains on Friday
and we will begin to see its effect in the form of upper forcing
creating at least scattered precipitation coverage as early as Fri
Aftn across our far southern and western zones with precipitation
coverage becoming widespread overnight Friday Night. Despite the
vigorous southwest flow aloft in advance of this next trough,
should not see a northward returning warm sector per say across 
our region so any sfc based instability should remain well to our
south and east Friday through Friday Night. SPC is forecasting 
just general thunderstorm activity across our region given the 
mid-level lapse rates but no severe weather is forecast. Rainfall
amounts associated with this system should stay generally below 
one inch across the western half of our region but some isolated 
areas could see upwards of 1-2 inches, especially across our 
eastern half through early Saturday Morning before the rainfall 
and the associated upper trough exits the region to our north and 
east.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

As mentioned above, the upper trough ejects out rapidly to our 
east during the day Saturday taking the rain with it. We will see 
a swift frontal passage in association with the upper disturbance 
late Friday Night and early Saturday with post-frontal conditions 
across our entire region during the day Saturday. Not expecting a 
frigid airmass in the wake of this front but the feature will 
knock temperatures back a bit for Sat and Sun with our coldest 
temperatures expected Sunday Night with near to below freezing 
temperatures mainly north of the I-20 Corridor.

Northwest flow aloft will prevail across the Southern 
Plains/Lower Miss Valley through at least Tue but a series of weak
disturbances will move our way in this flow, the first Mon and 
the second, Mon Night into Tue with maybe a little increased cloud
cover. For the most part we should see moderating temperatures 
next week with southerly low level flow beginning to return to our
region sometime Wed/Wed Night. Upper ridging will shift quickly 
east across the Southern Plains on Wed (per GFS) and then we are 
right back into southwesterly flow aloft for late next week which 
means rain chances return just beyond this 7-day forecast package.
Latest run of the ECMWF is a little slower with this mid to late 
week pattern shift but we will have at least some time to dry out
hopefully between Friday night and late next week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

Surface boundary associated precip is now east of the area
terminals this afternoon as BKN/OVC CIGs remain. Terminal
ASOS/AWOS showing a gradual rebound for KSHV and KMLU back to a 
mix of VFR and MVFR, while the remaining terminals fight low CIGs
and reduced VSBYs resulting in IFR and LIFR conditions. Though
there will be some improvement by the mid to late afternoon,
terminals will fall once again victim to BR/FG probs and low CIGs
with OVC being the dominate overnight. After 12z and on the far 
backside of the TAF period, gradual recovery will be ongoing for 
the airspace, but another day of mixed bag observations 
fluctuating between MVFR, IFR and LIFR appears promising. 

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  63  52  58 /   0  30  80  10 
MLU  49  63  54  62 /   0  30  90  20 
DEQ  42  59  46  54 /   0  10  80  30 
TXK  45  59  48  54 /   0  10  80  20 
ELD  46  61  48  55 /   0  10  80  20 
TYR  48  62  50  56 /   0  20  70   0 
GGG  46  63  50  58 /   0  30  70   0 
LFK  49  65  53  61 /   0  50  70   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53