848 
FXUS64 KMOB 221747
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1147 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024

MVFR ceilings continue to stream across a good portion of the 
area, with VFR conditions remaining in place over portions of 
south central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Lower ceilings will
eventually spread into these areas during the evening and
overnight hours. By around sunrise Tuesday, ceilings should begin
to lower further to IFR as showers begin to move into the area. 
Easterly winds of around 10-15 knots, with occasional higher 
gusts, are expected through the period. Additionally,
southeasterly low-level wind shear of around 30 to 40 knots is 
possible across interior portions of southeast MS and southwest AL
overnight tonight. /96

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024

(Now through Tuesday)...Southwesterly upper level flow becomes 
established over the forecast area through the near term period as a 
deepening upper level through digs into the southwest CONUS. At the 
surface, strong high pressure centered over the Carolina's early 
this morning slides off the East Coast and into the Atlantic today 
through Tuesday. This will allow result in surface winds across the 
region shifting to a more easterly direction early today, and then 
primarily a southeasterly direction late today through Tuesday. With 
flow becoming more onshore in both the lower levels and the upper 
levels, deep layer moisture is expected to slowly, but steadily, 
increase through the period, with PWATs increasing from less than 
one inch this morning to around 1.0-1.2 inches this evening and then 
further increasing to around 1.4 inches by the end of the day 
Tuesday. The still somewhat limited low level moisture today, 
combined with weak subsidence from the ridging that will still be 
nosing into our area from the northeast, should keep rain chances at 
a minimum through this evening, although the onset of the increasing 
moisture should lead to more clouds today across the area today than 
what we saw yesterday. Late tonight rain chances will begin to 
increase from the west, then continue to increase into the day on 
Tuesday when most locations will be looking at around a 40 percent 
chance of showers.  

Temperatures will begin the expected moderating trend today, with 
daytime highs expected to be at least 10 degrees warmer than what we 
saw yesterday. Most locations should see upper 50s and maybe even a 
few lower 60s along the coast. Lows tonight will be much warmer, 
ranging from the mid 40s over inland areas to the mid 50s at the 
coast. On Tuesday daytime highs will be even warmer, rising into 
the middle 60s for most locations. 

Finally, with easterly to southeasterly flow increasing this week, a 
HIGH Risk of rip currents is expected along area beaches through 
Friday. We will also have to monitor for the potential of surf 
heights building into the 4 to 6 foot range by Tuesday, and a High 
Surf Advisory may become necessary. DS/12



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      53  68  61  72  63  71  60  70 /  20  50  50  70  80  90  80  80 
Pensacola   55  65  62  71  65  71  63  70 /  20  40  50  60  70  80  80  90 
Destin      55  66  62  71  64  71  64  71 /  20  40  50  60  60  80  70  80 
Evergreen   45  68  58  74  64  74  61  72 /  20  40  50  60  80  90  80  80 
Waynesboro  48  68  59  73  63  71  58  70 /  30  50  50  90  80  90  70  60 
Camden      45  66  58  73  63  72  59  69 /  20  40  50  60  80  90  80  80 
Crestview   48  67  59  73  64  73  62  73 /  20  40  50  60  60  80  80  90 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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