390 
FXUS63 KBIS 220940
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
340 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering chances for precipitation remain in the east through
  through the early morning. While mainly falling as snow in the
  northeast, freezing rain is possible south central into the 
  James River Valley, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in
  effect until 15Z.

- Another push of precipitation, falling primarily as light snow
  is anticipated to move in from the west this morning through
  the afternoon for the northern counties. There is a low chance
  for freezing drizzle or light freezing rain along the 
  southern edge of this precipitation.

- Fog is expected in the southwest this morning, with a 50 to 70
  percent chance of visibilities dropping below 1 mile in the 
  far southwestern counties.

- Temperatures continue warming through the mid-week well into
  the 30s, before the trend slightly stalls through Friday. A
  more significant warming trend through the weekend and into 
  next week will bring western and central North Dakota well 
  into the 40s by Monday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024

The progression of a weak 500mb shortwave through near-zonal flow 
over the northern plains overnight produced precipitation over much 
of western and central North Dakota. Some lingering precipitation 
chances remain stubbornly over the eastern portions of the forecast 
area. While the northern counties primarily see this precipitation 
as snowfall, relatively warm mid-level temperatures and subfreezing 
surface temperatures over portions of south central North Dakota 
into the James River Valley continues to allow for light freezing 
rain over these areas. As such, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in 
effect for portions of south central North Dakota into the James 
River Valley through 15Z, as additional ice accumulations up to a 
light glaze are anticipated. 

An additional weaker shortwave is slated to push another round of 
precipitation through our northern counties this morning through the 
afternoon, falling primarily as light snow as mid-level temperatures 
begin cooling. In the southwest, where temperatures yesterday were 
well above freezing, there is a potential transition zone where some 
of this precipitation may fall as freezing drizzle due to the loss 
of ice aloft. The saturation of the near-surface layer as well as 
light winds also invites fog concerns into the southwest this 
morning. Portions of the far southwest, including much of Slope and 
Bowman counties, as well as portions of Golden Valley, Billings, 
Hettinger, and Adams counties, have moderate potential (50 to 70
percent) for visibility to drop below 1 mile through the early 
morning. Otherwise, high temperatures today are expected to 
range from the lower teens in the northeast up the lower 30s in 
the southwest. 

Looking ahead, conditions are slated to be relatively pleasant as 
temperatures continue warming under a near-zonal to southwesterly 
flow scheme. The warming trend is somewhat interrupted in the latter 
half of the week, however, as another sequence of upper level 
shortwaves progresses over the region late Wednesday through early 
Saturday, resulting in high temperatures stagnating in the upper 20s 
to mid 30s. Strong ridging then pushes into the Central Plains 
through the weekend from the west, renewing and enhancing the 
warming trend even further through the end of the forecast period, 
with highs forecast to be well into the 40s for much of western and 
central North Dakota by Monday. Looking further afield, the Climate 
Prediction Center's extended 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlooks has us 
strongly favored (90-100%) to remain above seasonable normals 
through early February at this time. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024

Localized freezing rain and/or sleet will be possible over south 
central and southeastern North Dakota through around 08Z, impacting 
KBIS and KJMS. Additional low snow chances will be possible north 
central early this morning (KMOT). Patchy freezing drizzle is then 
possible for western terminals through 13Z, mainly including KXWA 
and possibly KDIK. MVFR ceilings currently at KXWA and KMOT, will 
spread to all terminals through the remainder of tonight/Monday 
morning. IFR ceilings are expected for KDIK. The lower ceilings will 
then remain for the remainder of the 06Z period, through at least 
Monday evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for 
NDZ035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...NH