527 
FXUS63 KUNR 170848
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
148 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
144 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2024

-An arctic front will waver over the region and support a couple 
 rounds of light snow the next two days, heaviest on Thurs morning
 across NW SD. 

-Arctic air will spread back into the region Thursday into 
 Friday, with gusty northwest winds Thur and dangerous wind chills
 Thur night into Friday.

-Pacific ridge will shift east and support much warmer weather 
 later this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2024

Potent Hudson Bay Low will retrograde as a stronger Fujiwara 
trough supports another round of snow and arctic air into the 
region. Arctic front has lifted north with ongoing weak FGEN 
supporting scattered flurries this morning over parts of the 
northern FA. A stronger NW flow impulse will push through the 
region today and force widespread light snow over much of the FA 
later this morning into the afternoon. Snow amounts today will be 
an inch or less in areas that see persistent snow. Things will dry
out this evening before a stronger round of concentrated FGEN 
develops late tonight across the NW. Expect an area of banded snow
to develop across NW SD with the potential for localized 
mesoscale banding supporting areas of heavier snow akin to the 
HRRR, RAP, and NAM solutions. Generally 1-2 inches are expected 
for much of western SD, however local amounts up to 4 inches will 
be possible if/where banding occurs and persists, potentially 
over far NW SD. However, confidence in snow amounts and the 
location of banding remains low as forecast models tend to 
mishandle arctic front surges and their associated FGEN bands. 
Will let the day shift take another look. A winter weather adv 
would be needed for locations that receive 2+ inches in NW SD as 
winds will pick up later Thur behind the arctic front and gust 
over 40 mph, supporting areas of blowing and drifting snow. Snow 
will taper off quickly Thur with winds slowly diminishing Thur 
night into Fri. Blowing and drifting snow will likely persist 
across NW SD Thur night. Very cold wind chills will return Thur 
night into Friday, with another round of wind chill adv and 
possible warnings expected. After another couple of nights of 
subzero temps, the western NOAM ridge will begin to shift east 
Sat, supporting a warming trend into early next week, along with 
dry weather as Pac air spreads into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1022 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2024

Light snow showers have developed across portions of the area,
primarily the Black Hills and NW SD. Expect MVFR conditions and
transient IFR conditions in areas of snow through the overnight
hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist outside of snow through
17-19z Wednesday before additional low clouds and snow move into 
the area with MVFR/IFR conditions through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...SE