National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTOP
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTOP
Product Timestamp: 2024-01-16 17:14 UTC
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705 FXUS63 KTOP 161714 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1114 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous wind chills finally come to an end today, at least until Friday. - Could see some light snow across portions of the area Thursday afternoon and evening (20-30% chance). - Friday and Saturday look to be the next round of bitterly cold air but warming takes a stronger hold into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 The deep long wave trough responsible for pulling arctic air into the region is finally starting to advance to the east slowly. A Pacific ridge is now advancing on shore over the western CONUS. Arctic high pressure near the surface remains over the area this morning and responsible for one final morning of bitterly cold air with dangerous wind chills in place until around midday. The wind chill warning should be allowed to expire by this time as a short term warming trend will start to take shape as the surface high slides southeast and winds begin to return from the southwest into this evening and overnight time frame. Tomorrow should see temperatures rise to around freezing with the slightly warmer air lasting through part of Thursday. By Thursday afternoon and evening another shortwave trough digs into the central Plains as it translates through the northwest flow aloft. This allows for another arctic ridge to expand into the northern and Central Plains as the trough exits the area setting the stage for another bitterly cold spell Friday and Saturday. This cold doesn't look to be in place as long as the pattern starts to become more progressive. Light snow could accompany the advancement of the cold push. Weak ascent along with mid level frontogenetical forcing appears to at least be sufficient to keep mention of light snow in the forecast (20-30% chance) for now. A western ridge continues to build and advance east into Sunday and the early part of next week. Ensemble data shows a rising temperature trend to favor highs into the 40s and lows around freezing by mid next week. Another southern Pacific trough is then progged to enter the southern Plains which would yield thermal advection aloft to remain above freezing and much of the resultant precipition into next week may actually be in the form of rain. Confidence would be low to medium right now, but if the forecast remains on track then it will look like a much different scenario than the past week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1114 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Westerly wind will become more southwesterly by this evening. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Jones