524 
FXUS63 KTOP 142112
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
312 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frigid wind chills persist through Tuesday before a slight 
  reprieve midweek.

- Light snow chances (30-50%) on Monday with accumulations 
  remaining under 1 inch.

- Another shot of cold air builds in to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

A 1033mb surface ridge remains in control of the center of the CONUS 
with upper flow becoming more zonal. Even with some breaks in the 
clouds, temperatures have struggled to warm above freezing with most 
locations still in the single digits below zero. Weaker winds than 
yesterday provide some relief, but wind chills are still 15-25 
degrees below zero. A weak shortwave is pushing through the region 
with light snow developing across central Kansas. This wave could 
(15-25%) bring some light snow to areas south of Interstate 70 
through this evening, but little to no accumulation is expected. 
Winds weaken further this evening and overnight with additional 
cloud cover streaming into the area ahead of another wave that 
pushes through Monday. Weak winds support more radiational cooling 
than last night, but overall cooling could be dampened by cloud 
cover. Regardless, wind chills will reach -15 to -30 degrees below 
zero overnight.

The aforementioned wave for Monday is stronger and further north and 
will bring light snow to the entire area. The perturbation moves 
through rather quickly, but forecast soundings show ascent within 
the dendritic growth zone for a couple of hours before precipitation 
ends from northwest to southeast through the day. Chances for 1 inch 
of snow remain low (10-25%) and, with weak winds, any impacts should 
be minor. Wind chills again fall to 20 to 30 below zero Tuesday 
morning. 

Southerly winds become west-southwesterly on Tuesday allowing for a 
slight moderation in temperatures. Highs in the teens on Tuesday 
warm further to the 20s and 30s on Wednesday. Another passing wave 
shunts a cold front through the area on Thursday, knocking 
temperatures back to 20-25 degrees below normal values and bringing 
a 15-20% chance of light snow. Wind chills could once again reach 
advisory or warning criteria Friday and Saturday mornings. Relief is 
on the horizon with upper ridging and southerly flow returning for 
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

VFR conditions prevail with passing mid clouds around 10kft AGL.
Winds remain under 10kts generally from the northwest through 
the period. Light snow and possibly MVFR cigs approach terminals
near the end or just beyond this TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Jan 13 2024

Record lowest high temperature information:

DAY          LOCATION    RECORD LOWEST HIGH   FORECAST HIGH

January 14   Topeka       -6, set in 1888      0
January 14   Concordia   -11, set in 1888      0

January 15   Topeka       -3, set in 1888      4
January 15   Concordia    -6, set in 1888      6

January 16   Topeka        1, set in 1930     13
January 16   Concordia     1, set in 1930     16


Record low temperature information:

DAY          LOCATION    RECORD LOW         FORECAST LOW

January 15   Topeka      -20, set in 1888   -11
January 15   Concordia   -25, set in 1888   -13

January 16   Topeka      -11, set in 1888    -9
January 16   Concordia   -18, set in 1888    -9

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...65