784 
FXUS62 KJAX 130012
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
712 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A warm front has lifted north into central GA this evening. Slight
destabilization of the surface airmass in the front's wake has 
triggered some stronger storms to develop across SW GA. As storms 
enter our area, they will have to fight against a strong inversion,
mid- level dry air, and lack of ascent. A couple of strong to 
marginally severe storms will be possible this evening for inland 
SE GA, mainly for areas north and west of Waycross, GA. The main
potential hazard will be gusty winds. Otherwise, scattered 
showers will move across the area overnight ahead of an 
approaching cold front from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 256 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

This afternoon low ceilings and sea fog suggest very stable low
level conditions and destabilization will be very difficult. As
the cold front approaches we might see some elevated convection,
mainly showers between sunset and midnight. After midnight and
frontal passage will see gradually lifting ceilings with clearing
skies toward sunrise. Sea fog might impinge on coastal areas
tonight but with a SW to W flow should be very brief. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 256 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

Saturday Night: A dry and cold night will be in store across the
area, despite some high clouds likely keeping a bit of a "lid" on
nighttime cooling. The air mass in place should be cool and dry
enough with a weak high pressure influence for us to drop into the
30s inland to low 40s south and east towards the St Johns River
and coast. Therefore, there will be frost potential for inland
areas, with possibly a freeze in a few spots. 

Sunday and Sunday Night: The area will remain mainly under the
influence of a weak area of high pressure Sunday, and with 
overall less cloud cover for most of the day Sunday. A quick 
moving shortwave will pass just south of the area over the 
southern Florida Peninsula during the first half of the day as a 
dry cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will lose
progress through Sunday Night and likely stall somewhere over the
region as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. This will set the 
stage for our next frontal event - more on that below. Sunday will
be seasonably cool after the cold start, in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 256 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

Guidance is in good agreement that surface low pressure will
develop over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, quickly moving
northeastward along the stalled boundary through Tuesday and
perhaps Tuesday Night. At the same time, an upper trough will dig
southeastward Tuesday which will push a cold front through the
region. Details such as where the boundary stalls out and the
movement/magnitude of the upper trough will certainly play a big
role in both thunderstorm potential and rainfall amounts. However,
Monday Night and Tuesday should be wet and unsettled for most if
not all of the area.  

High pressure will build in behind the frontal system sometime
Wednesday, ushering in what looks to be some of the coldest air of
the winter so far, which will also come with frost and freeze
potential into Thursday, possibly even approaching far southern
and coastal areas. High pressure retreats to the east by the end
of the week as our next low pressure and frontal system starts to
shape up.  

Temperatures: We will begin the week near or perhaps even slightly
above average, which will quickly trend below average for mid to
late week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

IFR/MVFR ceilings continue this evening ahead of an approaching
line of pre-frontal showers. Isolated showers move through the TAF
sites between 02-06Z. A storm may pass by SSI but thunderstorm
chances are very low with the current stable airmass over the area.
Dense sea fog will continue to affect SSI through at least 02Z 
with LIFR VSBYs. A cold front will move through overnight and 
scour out the clouds in its wake bringing TAF sites to VFR by 
12Z. Breezy south-southwesterly winds will shift to northwesterly 
behind the front. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

Dense sea fog in the near shore coastal waters should continue
through frontal passage sometime near midnight. Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) criteria will be met through Saturday afternoon
with first a southerly flow ahead of the front becoming west to
northwesterly after the frontal passage. A few gusts to gale force
are possible in the offshore portion of the waters tonight. As
high pressure builds into the area on Saturday winds will
gradually diminish. Arctic high pressure will build over the
Midwest over the week and and weakly ridge over the waters on
Sunday. The next frontal system comes down on Monday and Tuesday
with gradually building southerly winds and seas. Late Tuesday and
Tuesday night the Arctic air really pushes south with SCA
conditions and possible gusts to gale force over the waters. The
high settles over the region on Wednesday with gradually
diminishing winds and seas. 

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Sunday due to a swell. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 411 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

Minor flooding will continue during the next several days along
the St. Marys River, with crests likely during the upcoming
weekend near the Macclenny gauge. Minor flooding is expected to
begin towards early next week along lower portions of the Santa 
Fe River near Three Rivers Estates. Additional rises are possible
along most main stem rivers and tributaries later next week as 
additional rainfall occurs early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  55  34  62 /  50   0   0   0 
SSI  48  57  39  60 /  30   0   0   0 
JAX  50  58  37  62 /  40   0   0   0 
SGJ  54  61  43  62 /  30   0   0  10 
GNV  51  58  39  65 /  40   0   0   0 
OCF  53  60  41  65 /  40   0  10  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$