294 
FXUS64 KTSA 121138
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 524 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Potent cold front continues to push through the CWA this morning,
bringing temps down into the teens behind it. Latest guidance 
keeps precipitation limited this morning and restricted to far 
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the mid/upper trough
axis moves overhead. Generally expecting less than an inch of 
snow for most areas as precip is expected to move off to the east 
fairly quickly this morning. Some guidance suggests a brief period
of freezing drizzle may materialize with loss of mid level cloud 
ice... however, this should be limited as temp profile will be 
cooling quickly and would expect any FZDZ to transition to 
flurries. In any case, potential exists for hazardous driving 
conditions through 10 AM and have realigned the Winter Weather 
Advisory to cover this accordingly. The vast majority of precip is
expected to shift east of the CWA by late morning/ early 
afternoon, with gradually clearing skies. While there will still 
be a diurnal temp curve this afternoon, it will likely be muted by
the passage of the cold front... especially across far NE OK and 
NW AR where temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 20s. 
Northwest winds increase today areawide with gusts up to 40 mph 
and a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM as a result.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 524 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Frigid temperatures will be the main story through the extended as  
arctic air filters into the region this weekend and early next 
week. The next cold front pushes through the forecast area during
the day Saturday, bringing breezy northerly winds and dangerous
wind chills with it. A rather tight north-south temperature 
gradient will be in place as it does so, with high temps on
Saturday well below freezing across northern counties and
potentially into the mid-40s for southeast Oklahoma. Cold air
continues to advect into the region through Sunday and Monday with
highs restricted to the 10s in the north and near 20 degrees
south. Overnight lows will likely plummet into the single digits
or below zero through this period. As sfc high pressure shifts to
the east by mid week, south winds are forecast to return to the
region with a warming trend... allowing most locations to climb
above freezing by Wednesday afternoon. Beyond this point, guidance
differs regarding the potential for another intrusion of cold air
by the end of next week (albeit not nearly as cold as the next few
days).

As mentioned earlier, bitterly cold temperatures and breezy N 
winds will combine to create dangerous wind chills this weekend 
and early next week. Wind chill headlines will likely be required 
with minimum wind chills as low as 0 to -20 degrees Saturday and 
Sunday... and -10 to -25 degrees Monday and Tuesday. These values 
can be life-threatening if not prepared. To make matters worse, 
guidance is still advertising potentially impactful snow 
accumulations Sunday into Monday as the next mid level shortwave 
approaches the region. Models remain widely varied with both 
timing, position, and strength of this feature and as a result, 
confidence remains low regarding the details. However, snow ratios
will likely be between 15:1 and 20:1 for this period, so it would
not take much to see meaningful accumulations. Additionally, any 
fresh snowpack would likely permit temps to fall even further 
Monday and Tuesday. Continued breezy to gusty winds may create 
blowing snow and reduced visibilities through this time frame as
well. After this storm, the forecast dries out through the end of
the period, though confidence remains lower than average for this
time frame. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

A band of snow is forecast by the short-term models to sweep
across the NW AR TAF sites this morning, with a moderate chance of
a temporary drop in vsby with it. IFR/MVFR cigs should trend
upward thru the day, with VFR conditions expected this afternoon.
NWrly winds will gust to 30 kts or more at times, subsiding after
00Z this evening.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  13  23   2 /  10   0   0   0 
FSM   33  23  38   8 /  30   0   0   0 
MLC   38  21  35   6 /  10   0   0   0 
BVO   29   8  19  -2 /  10   0   0   0 
FYV   28  15  31   1 /  30   0   0   0 
BYV   36  17  30   2 /  40   0   0   0 
MKO   33  17  29   4 /  10   0   0   0 
MIO   26  11  21  -1 /  20   0   0   0 
F10   35  17  29   4 /  10   0   0   0 
HHW   40  26  47  11 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ058-
     063-068-069-072-074-076.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-
     002-010-011-019-020-029.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30