807 
FNUS73 KAPX 111340
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Mio District Office Pile RX...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
840 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on January 11. 
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

.REST OF TODAY...Light snow continues this morning at the burn site, largely 
diminishing by midday/early afternoon. Light winds today and tonight turn 
out of the southeast later tonight into Friday in advance of potent low 
pressure approaching the region.This system is expected to bring strong 
winds and heavy snow Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow late in the 
                    morning, then chance of snow late in the 
                    morning. Slight chance of snow early in the 
                    afternoon. 
Max temperature.....Around 33. 
Min humidity........78 percent. 
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the 
                    afternoon. 
Transport winds.....South 2 to 3 mph shifting to the northwest 3 to 
                    5 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to 
                    the north around 6 mph late in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......1100-2800 ft AGL. 
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
Ventilation index...Excellent (2900.0). 

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky (%).........95  93  94  91  90  90  89  89  86  
Weather cov.....DEF CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH         
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN          
Tstm cov........                                    
Temp............28  28  29  30  31  32  32  32  31  
RH..............88  88  85  85  81  78  78  78  81  
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   
20 ft wind spd..3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   
20 ft wind gust.6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.0 
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   W   NW  NW  N   N   N   
Transp wind spd.3   2   3   3   5   5   6   6   6   
Vrate kt-ft.....330029005800730011K 11K 12K 11K 9900
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL 

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). 
Min temperature.....Around 22. 
Max humidity........96 percent. 
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph after 3 
                    am. 
Transport winds.....East 3 to 6 mph increasing to 3 to 10 mph 
                    overnight. 
Mixing height.......800-1700 ft AGL. 
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
Ventilation index...Excellent (2700.0). 

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 
Sky (%).........84  82  83  85  87  85  85  84  85  84  85  86  
Weather cov.....                                                
Weather type....                                                
Tstm cov........                                                
Temp............29  27  26  25  24  23  23  23  23  23  23  24  
RH..............88  92  92  92  92  96  96  96  96  96  96  92  
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   
20 ft wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   6   6   6   
20 ft wind gust.7   7   7   6   6   6   7   7   7   12  12  12  
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  E   
Transp wind spd.6   6   5   5   3   3   3   5   6   8   9   10  
Vrate kt-ft.....860074005300480033003000270034004300650078008600
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL 

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of snow in the 
                    morning. Snow likely early in the afternoon, 
                    then snow late in the afternoon. Patchy blowing 
                    snow in the late morning and early afternoon. 
                    Areas of blowing snow late in the afternoon. 
Max temperature.....Around 32. 
Min humidity........85 percent. 
20-foot winds.......East winds 6 to 13 mph increasing to 16 to 21 
                    mph with gusts to around 37 mph in the 
                    afternoon. 
Transport winds.....East 12 to 18 mph increasing to 22 to 31 mph 
                    late in the morning. 
Mixing height.......800-1500 ft AGL. 
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
Ventilation index...Excellent (9300.0). 

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   
Sky (%).........86     90     88     94     92     90     
Weather cov.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE 
Weather type....NONE   SNOW   SNOW   SNOW   SNOW   SNOW   
Tstm cov........                                          
Temp............24     26     28     30     32     31     
RH..............96     96     96     96     85     85     
20 ft wind dir..E      E      E      E      E      E      
20 ft wind spd..7      7      13     18     18     21     
20 ft wind gust.15     15     21     29     29     37     
Mix hgt (ft)....900    900    1100   1400   1400   900    
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3      
Transport wind..E 12   E 14   E 18   E 26   E 31   E 30   
Vrate kt-ft.....9300   11K    17K    32K    36K    24K    
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Jacob McGill
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2400559.0/APX
.DELDT 01/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jacob.mcgill@usda.gov