551 
FXUS63 KMPX 101806
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1206 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow this afternoon and evening, around an inch of
  accumulation. Plan for a slow and slick evening commute. 

- Light snow possible this weekend, as we're on the fringe of 
  another major winter storm that will barrel through the Great 
  Lakes. This storm will largely miss us to the south, as the 
  worst impacts are expected across Iowa into Illinois.

- Perhaps of most significance, the coldest air of the season
  will bring sub-zero high temperatures and dangerous wind
  chills of -25 to -35 by the end of the weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

Today and tonight...Patchy fog and low clouds were across
western Minnesota, while ceilings were a bit higher to the east
and there were even a few breaks in the clouds across western
Wisconsin. Early morning water vapor showed a couple shortwaves
to the west. Later today, one of these waves will track along 
the international border, while the other skirts to the south 
along I-80. That leaves us in the gap between the two, with 
better forcing to the north and to the south. As a result, the 
snowfall amounts for later today have decreased a bit. We do 
still expect light snow to fall this afternoon and evening, but 
the totals should be closer to a half inch or inch, which is 
down slightly from the 1-2 from the previous forecast. 

Thursday through Saturday...Snow will end from west to east
Thursday morning, so there could be some lingering impacts for
the morning commute. Later in the day a brief area of high
pressure will build in, which could give us some sunshine for
the afternoon. Meanwhile a powerful winter storm will take shape
across TX/OK panhandles. This storm will follow a similar path
to the previous storm, which means most of our area will not be
impacted. but areas in southern/eastern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin could see some snow. The most likely scenario is
around 1 to 2 inches, with a higher-end scenario of around 3-4.
This snow will come with increasing northwest winds of 25 to 30
mph as the surface low from the parent storm deepens to near
970mb. Therefore blowing and drifting snow will amplify the
impacts from these relatively low accumulations.

Saturday night through Tuesday...The main concern for this
weekend and early next week is a blast of arctic air.
Temperatures across the region will fall below zero Saturday  
night and the breezy northwest winds will continue. That will
lead to wind chills of -25 to -35 degrees for Sunday morning,
with a few colder readings possible across central and western
Minnesota. Highs on Sunday will struggle to get above zero, and
expect similar wind chills of -25 to -35 again for Sunday night
into Monday morning. Looking ahead, temperatures will moderate a
bit toward the end of the week, but overall it looks like a
solid stretch of winter weather for mid January.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

Current radar is showing echos across much of lower half of MN, 
but light snow is just starting to report within the past few
hours for central MN. Visibilities have dropped as low as 1
mile at times, otherwise is generally around 2-4 miles for spots
with light snow. The latest guidance has trended things down in
terms of amounts, but should still see reduced visibilities at 
times with light accumulations. Ceilings are a bit tricky as 
most spots are starting to scatter out the IFR layer from this 
morning. Currently forecasting MVFR for most sites, with high 
IFR sprinkled in at times. Winds will be light from the S/SE 
through this evening, before shifting more westerly and 
increasing to ~10kts overnight.

KMSP... Forecast has scaled back a bit on totals and intensity
for the snow this afternoon and evening. The timing of the
greatest snowfall rates remains around 01-04z, with visibilities
as low as 2SM at times. Following the snow, we could see clouds
start to rise and eventually scatter out a bit by tomorrow 
afternoon. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR likely, chc IFR/-SN. Wind N 10-15G25kts. 
SAT...MVFR likely, chc IFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-15G25-30kts. 
SUN...MVFR bcmg VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...BED