407 
FXUS64 KMOB 021130
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
530 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024

VFR conditions with a light northeasterly wind will persist 
through the forecast. Some light showers could develop late 
Tuesday night from west to east as the next system moves in. BB/03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024

Dry conditions prevail today in advance of our next coastal 
system on Wednesday. A rather quick hitting but potent shortwave 
trough currently over New Mexico is expected to eject eastward 
across the deep south on Wednesday. Weak upper riding will be in 
place today leading to benign conditions as surface high pressure 
quickly transitions east of the area. As the upper trough 
progresses across the deep south, a rather strong surface low is 
expected to develop over the northern Gulf and race eastward. We 
will remain on the cool side of this low as the surface warm front
remains well offshore. Rain will be the name of the game as we 
will likely receive a steady cold rain most of the day on 
Wednesday. One thing to note is right at the onset of rain late 
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. As the profile 
moistens up and begins to approach its wetbulb temperature, there 
may be a brief period over areas north of highway 84 where a sleet
pellet or two might fall. While there's no chance it would be 
more than a Gee Whiz pellet, would be an interesting feat of 
meteorology to get it done. Otherwise the rest of us will be in a 
cold dreary rain until it clears quickly Wednesday night.

Temperatures will be cool with highs struggling to reach the mid 50s 
this afternoon and we will not even crack the 50s on Wednesday. Lows 
will be in the 30s tonight and upper 20s to low 30s on Wednesday 
night. With the surface low moving across the Gulf, winds will 
increase leading to increased surf. As a result, a high risk of rip 
currents will be possible Wednesday night. BB/03

SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Thursday night) 
Issued at 422 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024

A brief respite in the rainfall is expected as high pressure
builds over the region for the short term forecast period. Dry
weather conditions can be expected both Thursday and Thursday 
night. Temperatures will will range from the lower to middle 50s 
on Thursday with lows mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s over 
interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, 
to the middle 30s to lower 40s along the coast. 

Building swell will migrate towards the coast Wednesday night in
response to the mid week low pressure system. This will result in
a high risk for rip currents Wednesday night, lowering to a
moderate risk Thursday and Thursday night as the pressure gradient
weakens. /JLH

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 422 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024

An active weather period will remain in place as a strong subtropical
jet across the southern U.S. brings a series of storm systems 
across the forecast area. 

A highly amplified shortwave trough will move from the Southern
Plains Friday evening and across the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys on Saturday. This shortwave will take on an increasingly 
negative tilt as it lifts northeast into the Tennessee Valley.
Surface low pressure should develop in response to this upper
trough along the Upper Texas Coast Friday evening. This low
pressure system should lift northeastward and deepen through
Saturday morning as it advances inland across southeast
Mississippi into central Alabama. 

Upper level diffluence becomes maximized after midnight Friday 
night as a 130kt upper jet noses into the north-central Gulf Coast
and a large portion of our area becomes positioned beneath the 
left exit region of the jet. This should enhance our large scale 
ascent later Friday night into Saturday morning. As the surface 
low lifts inland after midnight, expect a surface warm front to 
surge inland across our coastal counties of Alabama and the 
western Florida Panhandle. This front will be overlaid by a 
powerful 60+kt low level jet which should assist in advecting 
greater quality theta-e air northward into the southern portions 
of our forecast area. The biggest question will be the overall
quality of the warm sector airmass as there will not be an
extended period of airmass recovery between the mid week system
and this system. If there is sufficient airmass recovery, which is
being hinted by the latest guidance, there may be enough low level
instability combined with the strong large scale ascent and
powerful shear to result in a zone of severe storm potential
mainly along the coastal counties. There still remains some
uncertainty with regards to how much instability will advect
inland so we will continue to closely monitor the evolution of
this storm system over the next few days. 

There will be a brief respite in the active weather during the day
on Sunday before the next powerful storm system approaches in the
flow aloft for early next week. This system appears to be 
anomalously strong with a deep surface low developing over the 
Southern Plains and moving east. Moisture return and instability 
with this system appears sufficient over our area and combined 
with intense lift and powerful winds, may spell an increased 
threat for severe weather across our area. This system is still 
well into the extended forecast period and there are many details 
to work out. Regardless, this system has the potential to produce
very active weather over the southern U.S. for early next week. /JLH

MARINE...
Issued at 422 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong northerly winds tonight 
will quickly relax today. Several potent systems over the next week 
will bring multiple rounds of hazardous sea conditions this week. 
The first surface low will move across the gulf Tuesday night 
through Wednesday night as easterly winds increase Tuesday night and 
Small Craft Advisory conditions begin Wednesday morning. Winds will 
quickly turn northerly behind the surface low but remain strong into 
Wednesday night before easing Thursday. After a brief break 
Thursday, the next low will develop Friday through Saturday 
potentially brining another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions 
and potentially Gales as southerly winds increase ahead of the low. 
Winds drop off again over the weekend before the strongest of the 
three system arrives early next week. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      56  38  50  34  55  34  61  52 /   0  60 100  20   0   0  20 100 
Pensacola   57  42  53  38  55  40  63  57 /   0  50 100  50   0   0  10  90 
Destin      56  44  54  41  58  43  63  57 /   0  20 100  60   0   0  10  90 
Evergreen   57  32  50  31  55  30  59  47 /   0  20 100  50   0   0  10 100 
Waynesboro  55  33  45  29  53  29  59  47 /   0  40 100  10   0   0  20 100 
Camden      54  32  46  29  51  28  57  45 /   0  10  90  20   0   0  10 100 
Crestview   58  33  51  34  56  31  61  50 /   0  20 100  60   0   0  10  90 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday 
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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