876 
FXUS64 KMOB 301024
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
424 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023

Overall broad upper level troughing will continue over the 
eastern half of the CONUS today through Sunday. Several strong 
shortwave troughs in the broader scaled trough are noted through 
the period. The first will be moving east of the US Atlantic 
Seaboard today and tonight, with a second shortwave trough 
developing into an upper low today and moving generally east out 
of the upper Plains states today and to the Great Lakes region by 
late Sunday. Trailing shortwave energy extending south from this 
upper low well to our north will sweep east across our area late 
tonight and Sunday morning. A deep layer dry airmass will be in 
place across our region through the near term, so no precipitation
and only some mid level scattered clouds expected with the 
passage of this shortwave. Upper flow over our area becomes more 
zonal on Sunday, with the deep layer dry airmass continuing. Other
than the occasional mid level clouds at times tonight, generally 
clear skies are expected today and tonight. On Sunday there may be
an increase in upper level clouds streaming east across our area 
in the zonal flow aloft, but still plenty of sunshine expected. 
High temperatures across the area today will be similar to 
yesterday, mainly ranging from the low to mid 50s. Lows tonight 
still cold, but not quite as cold as the past several nights. 
Still looking at lower 30s for most areas from just north of the 
I-10 corridor and northward, with mid to upper 30s to the south of
the I-10 corridor and then low to mid 40s expected along the 
immediate coast and barrier islands. Should finally see daytime 
high temperatures raise out of the 50s and into the lower 60s 
across the area on Sunday. /12

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 424 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023

Dry conditions will persist through Sunday night as zonal flow
aloft returns to the region. A positively tilted upper trough 
extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the central Great Plains
will dive southeastward over the southeast CONUS by late Monday 
afternoon. This trough will then move quickly off the east coast 
by late Monday night, while an upper ridge over the Great Plains 
advances eastward toward the Mississippi River. A deep westerly 
wind flow on Monday will advect limited moisture over the forecast
area, with PWATs bumping up to around one inch. Low level forcing
along a cold front advancing southeastward across the area will 
bring light rain showers to areas northwest of I-65 Monday morning
that will spread eastward across the areas through the afternoon 
hours. Dry conditions will return Monday night in the wake of the 
cold front. 

Low temperatures Sunday night will be slightly above normal, with
mid 30s to low 40s inland areas and mid to upper 40s closer to 
the coast. High temperatures Monday will be near normal, with mid 
to upper 50s across the inland portions of southeast Mississippi 
and southwest Alabama, and low to mid 60s elsewhere. Temperatures 
will again cool off behind the frontal passage Monday night,
dipping into the mid 20s to low 30s inland areas and mid to upper
30s closer to the coast. /22

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023

Weather systems will continue to transit quickly from west to east
across the southern U.S. through the extended portions of the
forecast period. High pressure on Tuesday will give way to the
next storm system by mid week. Expect dry and seasonably cold
temperatures on Tuesday ahead of the next system. 

Much of the model guidance shows an upper trough over the Desert 
Southwest early Tuesday moving quickly eastward, and reaching the 
Mississippi River by late Wednesday afternoon. As the upper low 
moves east, expect a surface low pressure area to develop along 
the Upper Texas Coast and move east along the northern Gulf Coast 
through Wednesday night. Deep moisture is progged to advect 
northward in advance of this system into the Lower Mississippi 
Valley and the northern Gulf Coast later Tuesday night. 

Initially, a cold and dry airmass should be locked in place
across our forecast area. As moisture overspreads the initially 
dry and cold airmass, there are some suggestions that 
precipitation may begin as a light wintry mix across portions of 
interior southeast MS into southwest AL. Wetbulb temperatures near
or slightly below freezing well down into the boundary layer 
could support this brief wintry mix with the potential for some 
sleet or even a few wet snowflakes at the onset of precipitation 
prior to sunrise on Wednesday morning with temperatures hovering 
just above freezing. Stronger warm air advection later Wednesday 
morning should help to saturate the atmosphere and push 
temperatures well above freezing by mid morning. This should 
result in any brief wintry weather to transition to all rain. At 
this time, it appears that any wintry precipitation that can fall 
will remain light and with temperatures above freezing we are not 
anticipating any impacts from potential wintry precipitation. 
Also, there still remains some uncertainty with regard to 
temperatures at the precipitation onset. Therefore, any potential 
appears limited in timing and scope and should remain non 
impactful. Elsewhere, expect temperatures early Wednesday morning 
to remain sufficiently warm to support all rain through the event.
There may also be a few elevated thunderstorms along the coast as
instability aloft to the north of a warm front just offshore 
supports a few storms. Temperatures by Wednesday afternoon should 
range from around 50 over interior areas, to the lower and mid 60s
along the immediate coast. 

Low pressure moves quickly east with any rainfall ending by
Wednesday evening. Dry high pressure will rebuild back over the
forecast area for the end of the week with a return to dry
conditions and seasonably cold temperatures. /JLH /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 424 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023

Light to moderate northwesterly winds across the marine area today 
weaken tonight and become more westerly. A light to moderate, 
mainly westerly flow, is then expected through Monday before 
increasing and becoming more north to northeasterly Monday night 
into Tuesday in the wake of a cold front. Moderate to strong winds
are then expected to continue into the middle part of next week. 
Exercise caution winds/seas are expected at times through the 
middle part of the week, especially over the Gulf waters, and may 
pose hazards to small craft. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      56  35  63  44  63  34  57  39 /   0   0   0   0  40   0   0  30 
Pensacola   55  40  62  49  65  38  57  45 /   0   0   0   0  30  10   0  20 
Destin      58  45  64  53  67  40  59  47 /   0   0   0   0  30  20   0  10 
Evergreen   55  30  62  37  61  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0  40  10   0  10 
Waynesboro  55  30  62  38  56  28  55  33 /   0   0   0   0  40   0   0  30 
Camden      52  30  61  36  54  27  54  33 /   0   0   0   0  30   0   0  20 
Crestview   55  32  63  41  66  32  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  30  10   0  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob