757 
FXUS63 KSGF 282315
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
515 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of freezing drizzle and light snow tonight into Friday
  morning. A few slick spots may develop on untreated roadways,
  especially on bridges and overpasses.

- Snow accumulations from a dusting to a half inch near and 
  east of the Highway 65 corridor. Localized amounts around an 
  inch east of an Osage Beach to Lebanon line.

- A very thin glaze of ice on elevated surfaces along and west
  of the Highway 65 corridor.

- Drier weather with seasonable temperatures return for the 
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

Additional upper level energy and lift will rotate around the 
backside of the low and move south across the region this 
evening into Friday morning. Cloud ice will increase across the 
area accompanied with ample lift. Temperatures will cool back 
into the middle to lower 30s this evening and tonight. This will
allow bands of light snow to develop across portions of central
Missouri and the eastern Missouri Ozarks. The snow will be 
light, but there could be localized brief bursts of moderate 
snow at times. Snow accumulations from a dusting to half an inch
with localized amounts up to around two inches will occur
especially in central Missouri. Visibilities could also be 
reduced in these bands and a few slick spots especially on 
bridges and overpasses could occur. 

Latest forecast guidance is showing a signal for areas of freezing
drizzle to occur in addition to the snow after 9 PM and through
9 AM along and west of the Highway 65 corridor. Cloud ice 
starts to wain after 9 PM starting with the far western Missouri
counties. Intermittent periods of minimal cloud ice in 
conjunction with ample moisture and lift, creates a conducive 
environment to support drizzle. HREF model guidance shows an 80
to 90% probability of temperatures staying below freezing 
through the night. They will range from 29 to 32 degrees. 
Precipitation would most likely start out as freezing drizzle, 
transition to snow, and then back to freezing drizzle as snow 
exits. This would allow a thin glaze of ice to form mainly on 
elevated surfaces which would include untreated bridges and 
overpasses. Visibilities will be reduced where drizzle occurs. 

Precipitation is expected to diminish by the afternoon hours on
Friday. Highs on Friday will warm into the mid 30s and will be
highly dependent on how long the cloud cover and drizzle
lingers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

Mid-level ridge will move over the Central Plains bringing 
warmer temperatures in the mid 40s into the area. A drier air 
mass will be in place through the long term period. Cooler 
conditions will occur across the northern portions of the area 
on Sunday as front moves through the CWA. Upper level ridging 
then builds back over the CWA with seasonable temperatures 
expected into the middle of next week with highs in the lower 
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

Another wave of energy will rotate around an upper level low to
the northeast of the area and will bring lowering ceilings
tonight into Friday morning. Ceilings will drop into the MVFR
and some IFR with the better chance for IFR at SGF. There will
be a chance for some light snow showers or drizzle with the
increased lower cloud cover, again mainly at SGF. MVFR will
likely continue through much of the period, but should begin
improving by the end of the period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Lindenberg