949 
FXUS64 KMAF 282011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

The quiescent pattern continues, with today shaping up to be 
remarkably similar to yesterday as highs climb toward the middle 
50s to lower 60s for most this afternoon. Latest satellite imagery
indicates the large low responsible for the northern Plains' 
winter storm has continued its eastward trek, now moving across 
the Ohio Valley. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico remain on the
west side of this system, benefiting from subsidence and dry 
northwesterly flow aloft. Moisture routed between the departing 
low and a developing ridge extending from Baja California Sur 
north-northeastward across the Great Basin and northern Rockies 
has resulted in an uptick in cirrus clouds, especially along and 
west of the Pecos River today. These clouds are of little 
consequence, with mostly clear skies tonight setting the table for
another night of efficient radiational cooling as lows drop into 
the lower 20s north and across the Marfa Plateau to lower 30s 
south.

The aforementioned low will continue its slow eastward 
progression on Friday, with little change to the antecedent 
conditions expected locally. Subtly rising heights will allow 
temperatures to warm a couple of degrees Friday afternoon, 
yielding highs in the middle to upper 50s for most, and 60s 
through portions of the river valleys. Friday night's lows also 
tick up at least a few degrees, but remain rather chilly ranging 
from the middle 20s to lower 30s across the area. Dry conditions 
continue to be the rule.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

An upper ridge is expected to build into the area Saturday into 
Sunday, with southerly winds developing ahead of lee troughing. 
South-southwesterly winds are expected Saturday afternoon, with 
gusty west-southwesterly winds on Sunday afternoon, especially in 
the higher elevations. High and low temperatures will be above 
average until a backdoor surface cold front moves through late 
Sunday evening and winds shift to a northeasterly direction into 
Monday morning. A series of mid-level troughs will move through 
Monday into Wednesday and again Thursday into Friday, with below 
normal highs and above normal lows expected. The first trough is 
expected to bring a chance of mostly light rain across 
northeastern portions of the forecast area Tuesday, with perhaps a
slight chance of snow mixing in, although with no accumulation 
expected. The second trough is expected to bring another chance of
rain for northern portions of the forecast area late Thursday 
into Friday. From Thursday into Friday, a wintry mix is possible 
in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, 
even if most places see rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

VFR conditions and light winds will continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               27  57  28  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 22  57  26  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   33  61  34  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            28  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           30  52  33  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    24  57  29  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    18  57  24  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     27  58  30  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   27  57  31  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     24  59  27  64 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84